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NBA
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK ALIGNED
63% Sharp Lean
63% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
San Antonio Spurs San Antonio Spurs -11.5
"Spurs -11.5 gets our 12.7-point projection and Dallas's missing frontcourt (Lively II, Aldama out) at just -112; skip the -620 ML."
EV / $100
+5.4
Win Prob
78%
Edge
-8.1%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs None
50%
TOTAL over 227.5
56%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 2.3% divergence on spread with moderate signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$399271 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 139 trades Kalshi: 6 trades Largest: $42297
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-12.5
Edge: -1.0
Total
227.0
Edge: -0.5
Win Prob
78.0%
ML
-355 / 355

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Dallas Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -575 / 400 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -539 / 413 -
Value Line - -590 / 425 -
Sharp Action Best Line -11.0 (-115) - -
Market Consensus -11.5 (-101) ↓ - -
Value Line -11.5 (-107) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 228.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 228.0 (-107)
Value Line - - Over 228.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 105 / -105 -492 / 492 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks

M
Max Christie
(G) out — Christie (hip) is out for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Out
S
Santi Aldama
(F) out — Aldama (knee) is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Out
T
Tarik Biberovic
(F) out — Biberovic (heel) is listed as out for Monday's game against Sacramento.
Out
D
Dereck Lively II
(C) out — Lively (foot) is listed as out for Monday's game against the Kings.
Out
S
Sergio de Larrea
(F) out — Head coach Dusty May said Friday that de Larrea (knee) will be re-evaluated next week, Noah Weber of TheSmokingCuban.com reports.
Out

San Antonio Spurs

T
Tobias Harris
(F) out — Harris (calf) is listed as out for Saturday's game against Minnesota.
Out
J
Jayden Quaintance
(F) out — Quaintance has been around the team but has not yet been cleared for basketball activities, Matt Guzman of SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -11.0 (-115)
Total Over 228.0
Key Injuries
Max Christie Out
Santi Aldama Out
Tobias Harris Out
Jayden Quaintance Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-03T22:26:34.279257 UTC

Model projection (no market line supplied); primary Spurs usage with no meaningful injury cascade against a Dallas defense missing both Lively II and Aldama at the rim.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs

+5.4 EV
per $100 wagered
San Antonio Spurs 63% Sharp Lean
"Spurs -11.5 gets our 12.7-point projection and Dallas's missing frontcourt (Lively II, Aldama out) at just -112; skip the -620 ML."
78% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 78%
Book Implied 86%
Edge -8.1%
Line Movement
Open -11.5
Current -11.5 (Home -112 / Away -108)
Movement No movement detected from opening spread
Home ML at -620 requires 86.1% breakeven vs our 78.0% posterior - heavily negative EV. Per the ML value filter, confidence is set to 50 (PASS); the San Antonio spread at -112 is the only market with positive expected value.
FULL ANALYSIS
OMEGA's blended model projects 119.8-107.1 (Poisson 70/ELO 30), one full point through the -11.5 market price, and the NegBin run agrees at 121.4-108.6 with a 77.5% home win probability. The exploitable number isn't the -620 ML (86.1% breakeven, massively negative EV) - it's San Antonio -11.5 at -112 while Dallas plays without Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama up front, with Kyrie Irving still day-to-day. Take the spread at 1u, tease the 227.5 over at half a unit off the 230.0-230.1 model projections, and cap everything at 65 since this sport has no validated pricing cell.
SHARP MONEY
OMEGA line (-12.5) and the NegBin model (77.5% home win prob) both run ~1 point through San Antonio relative to the market's -11.5 with no reverse movement recorded; moderate model-only signal given limited pricing streams.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD San Antonio Spurs -11.5
+5.4 EV 63% 1.0u
MONEYLINE San Antonio Spurs None
-21.7 EV 50%
TOTAL over 227.5
+1.9 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
San Antonio Spurs -620
  • No edge: -620 needs 86.1% breakeven versus our 78.0% posterior; one Spurs loss erases six-plus wins
  • PASS per the ML value filter - take the spread instead
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
San Antonio Spurs -11.5
  • OMEGA scoring model/team strength blend projects a 12.7-point margin (119.8-107.1) vs the market's 11.5, with Dallas missing Dereck Lively II and Santi Aldama in the frontcourt
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
OVER 227.5
  • Decomposed ratings project 230.1 and NegBin projects 230.0 combined vs the market's 227.5, giving a 2.5-2.6 point lean to the over even after the 5-point totals confidence haircut
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Spurs -11.5 gets our 12.7-point projection and Dallas's missing frontcourt (Lively II, Aldama out) at just -112; skip the -620 ML.
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