Home › MLB › New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +13.9% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 1.5
"Orioles +1.5 sharp/whale edge (extreme $1.4M home) vs omega even line; over 9 +15.2pp Bayesian crush"
EV / $100
+6.5
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+13.5%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
61%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 5.7% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1441337 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 423 trades Kalshi: 1116 trades Largest: $201683
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +173.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
28.6%
ML
249 / -249

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 153 / -185 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 117 / -127 -
Value Line - 143 / -180 -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-139) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-113)
De-Vigged Fair Value -133 / 133 122 / -122 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

J
Jose Caballero
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Caballero (finger) is expected to reclaim the team's starting shortstop job when he returns from the injured list, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Monday that Stanton will undergo tests on his injured right calf in hopes of being cleared to ramp up his running this week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) completed five innings in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters.
15-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day

Baltimore Orioles

D
Dylan Beavers
(RF) day-to-day — Beavers is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Yankees, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Grant Wolfram
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Wolfram on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a lower-back strain, retroactive to Saturday.
15-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 60-day IL — The Orioles transferred Kjerstad (hamstring) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Kremer (quadriceps) has begun a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Helsley
(RP) 15-day IL — The Orioles announced Monday that Helsley (elbow) hasn't been cleared to start a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) will play at third base in a rehab game with Double-A Chesapeake on Sunday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg will have a follow-up appointment for his right elbow sprain Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Povich
(SP) 15-day IL — The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation.
15-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-139)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jose Caballero 10-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Dylan Beavers Day-To-Day
Grant Wolfram 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles

+6.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 65% Sharp Lean
"Orioles +1.5 sharp/whale edge (extreme $1.4M home) vs omega even line; over 9 +15.2pp Bayesian crush"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +13.5%
Line Movement
Current NYY ML -173 / BAL ML +142, Run Line NYY -1.5 approx -173, Total 9.0
Movement No significant movement
net_injury_advantage_away
Tiny +0.2 EV on Yankees ML at -173; does not exceed breakeven +5% threshold (need 68.4%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian ML posterior 63.5% Yankees vs 58.7% devigged (+4.8pp) but heavy -173 juice fails 5% threshold rule amid sharp/whale home action ($1.4M extreme volume 82% home). Total over 9.0 crushes with 65.2% posterior (+15.2pp), MC 19.3 projected and omega 22.5 confirming blowout scoring model. Orioles +1.5 run line value from sharp 5.7% home edge + omega even spread vs juiced market. Net injuries -2.8% away but Tier 2 home signals boost dog spread.
SHARP MONEY
5.7% sharp edge favoring Orioles ML with strong divergence signal
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles 1.5
+6.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+0.2 EV 61%
TOTAL over 9.0
+15.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 61%
New York Yankees -173
  • Bayesian posterior 63.5% vs devigged market 58.7% (+4.8pp)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Baltimore Orioles 1.5
  • Sharp money + whale extreme volume on home + MC margin -0.6 favors dog run line cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC projected 19.3 total >> 9.0
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orioles +2.2 (56% posterior +6pp edge) despite whales home; model over 8.5 by 15pp on 22.5 proj total
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE