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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +47.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -1.5
"BOS RL +13% sharp edge + $277k extreme whales vs retail juice, 4.2 EV despite data gaps"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
55%
TOTAL over 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$280250 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (75% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 70 trades Largest: $22627

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -117 / -103 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -112 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (176) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 191 / -191 -107 / 107 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will make another start during his minor-league rehab assignment in the coming week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weiss
(RP) Paternity — Weiss appears in line to move to the Houston bullpen after Kai-Wei Teng was named the team's starter for Tuesday's game in Baltimore, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
paternity
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) began taking at-bats in live batting practice Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw 20 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday and said afterward that it was akin to his first live BP of spring training, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) said Wednesday that he's "pretty confident" he'll be able to return from the injured list in the minimum 15 days, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) underwent additional testing after being pulled from a rehab assignment, and the imaging revealed nothing alarming, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) threw a bullpen session Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Gray (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Monday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Tatsuya Imai 15-Day-IL
Ryan Weiss paternity
Garrett Crochet 15-Day-IL
Patrick Sandoval 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"BOS RL +13% sharp edge + $277k extreme whales vs retail juice, 4.2 EV despite data gaps"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current BOS -1.5 -115 / HOU +1.5 -105 | ML BOS -115 / HOU -105 | Total 9.5 -110
Movement No significant movement detected
equal_injury_impact
Marginal EV on home ML from calibrated + sharp/whale confirmation despite 0% raw edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 13% edge + extreme $277k whale volume on BOS RL exploits retail shade despite Pinnacle fair 34.4% home cover prob. Equal -6.9% injury hits (BOS 4 pitchers IL) but leaders like Abreu (.307)/Alvarez (.356) project volume. Degraded data caps conviction; historical spreads profitable here.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 13% sharp edge on BOS spread + extreme whale volume ($277k institutional, 76% confidence, 34 wallets)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -1.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+1.9 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Boston Red Sox -115
  • Bayesian posterior 53.5% fuses to 54.5% with whale extreme boost overriding flat market
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox -1.5
  • 13% sharp-public divergence on BOS RL with +47.8% EV vs some retail lines per +EV analysis
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.5
  • Pinnacle fair value 50.5% over vs retail 50% implied, neutral injuries
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
BOS run line + ML: extreme $277k whales (76%) + 13% sharp spread edge vs Pinnacle, +4.2 EV despite injuries
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