Home › Bundesliga › VfL Wolfsburg @ 1. FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg
1. FC Union Berlin
Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
1. FC Union Berlin 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
"Union home HCA unpriced at 52% win prob vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV ML +110"
EV / $100
+6.6
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE 1. FC Union Berlin None
60%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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VfL Wolfsburg

1. FC Union Berlin

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
0.9
Moneyline
1. -113 / VFL 113
Win Probability
53% - 47%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
VfL Wolfsburg @ 1. FC Union Berlin
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

VfL Wolfsburg @ 1. FC Union Berlin

+6.6 EV
per $100 wagered
1. FC Union Berlin 58% Lean Raw
"Union home HCA unpriced at 52% win prob vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV ML +110"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5 (+105 home / -145 away); ML 1. FC Union Berlin +110 / VfL Wolfsburg +215; Total 2.5 (-110 est)
Movement No significant line movement detected
+EV on home ML +110 and -0.5 +105 with adjusted home win prob above implied
FULL ANALYSIS
Union Berlin home win prob adjusted to 52% vs market 47.6% on +110 ML/+105 -0.5 spread due to unpriced Bundesliga HCA and Union's defensive home splits. Total under 2.5 at 54% with Union's low-scoring home games (historical <2.8 goals). Poor data (21% signals) and N=0 cap all at Lean tier, reduced 7 points.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD 1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
+6.6 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE 1. FC Union Berlin None
+9.2 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
1. FC Union Berlin 110
  • 52% home win prob exceeds +110 breakeven of 47.6%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
1. FC Union Berlin -0.5
  • Home win prob adjusted to 52% vs market 47.6% implied on +105 odds
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Union Berlin home unders (historical low pace) project 54% under 2.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Union home ML +110 (+6.1 EV) and -0.5 +105 on Bundesliga home cover edge vs Wolfsburg
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