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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Los Angeles Angels
Angels
Los Angeles Angels
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +44.4% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets -1.5
"Mets runline +18.4% sharp edge vs public, +44.8 EV at plus-money away spread despite whale home action"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+1.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
55%
TOTAL over 9.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.1% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1527213 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (97% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 126 trades Kalshi: 3392 trades Largest: $101744

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Los Angeles Angels

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 104 / -124 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 108 / -119 -
Value Line - 108 / -134 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-360) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-151) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-112)
De-Vigged Fair Value -142 / 142 114 / -114 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — The Mets signed Rojas to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets reassigned Burdi to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — The Mets are expected to place Robert (back) on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Angels

Y
Yusei Kikuchi
(SP) day-to-day — Kikuchi was lifted from his start Wednesday against the White Sox prior to the bottom of the third inning due to left shoulder tightness. He struck out a batter and allowed two hits and one walk over two scoreless frames before departing.
Day-To-Day
B
Ben Joyce
(RP) 15-day IL — Joyce (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday, Taylor Blake Ward of TheSportingTribune.com reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Logan O'Hoppe
(C) 10-day IL — O'Hoppe said Monday that the fracture in his left wrist is small and he believes he will return from the injured list in a "couple of weeks," Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kirby Yates
(RP) 15-day IL — Yates (knee) has made three minor-league rehab outings since April 17, giving up a combined seven runs on seven hits while posting a 5:1 K:BB over three innings.
15-Day-IL
G
Grayson Rodriguez
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) threw to live hitters in Arizona on Friday, and the Angels are evaluating how he came out of that session before determining the next step in his throwing program, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Alek Manoah
(SP) 15-day IL — Manoah (finger) tossed four simulated innings to hitters Tuesday and is nearing a minor-league rehab assignment, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Johnson
(SP) 15-day IL — Johnson (hamstring/illness) has resumed playing catch and is close to throwing a bullpen session, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Robert Stephenson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Angels announced that Stephenson underwent ligament and flexor repair surgery on his right elbow Wednesday and is likely to miss the remainder of the season, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Rendon
(3B) 60-day IL — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-360)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Jose Rojas Day-To-Day
Nick Burdi Day-To-Day
Yusei Kikuchi Day-To-Day
Ben Joyce 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Los Angeles Angels

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 58% Lean
"Mets runline +18.4% sharp edge vs public, +44.8 EV at plus-money away spread despite whale home action"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +1.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: Angels +104 / Mets -126 | Runline: Mets -1.5 -126 | Total: 9.0
Movement No significant movement
Near-zero EV on ML after vig; spread away shows +EV potential vs Market Consensus fair value
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money strongly on Mets runline (18.4% edge) with +44.8% EV vs Pinnacle fair 42% away cover prob; whales extreme Angels ML contradict but default sharp/Pinnacle. Bayesian ML edge 0% at 51% away, data degraded misses pitchers/weather (-4 conf). Injuries net slight home edge but poor quality.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 18.4% sharp edge on spread away + moderate ML away; Pinnacle fair value confirms away lean despite public
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets -1.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
-0.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New York Mets -126
  • Bayesian posterior 51% away matches devigged market but sharp moderate signal + Pinnacle fair 54% away
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Mets -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 18.4% on spread away + +44.8% EV vs Pinnacle fair (42% fair prob away cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.0
  • Pinnacle fair over 51.2% slight edge vs neutral total market
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Angels +1.5 +21.8 EV (Pinnacle 58% cover vs 44% implied); $1.5M extreme whales on Angels ML
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