Home › NHL › Colorado Avalanche @ St. Louis Blues
NHL
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
3 - 1
Final
St. Louis Blues
Blues
St. Louis Blues
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
St. Louis Blues St. Louis Blues 1.55
"Blues +130 ML / +164 spread: omega 0.0 vs -155 market + 13% sharp edge = +28 EV (Makar out)"
EV / $100
+28.3
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
67%
TOTAL under 6.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +155.0
Total
19.0
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
31.6%
ML
217 / -217

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Colorado Avalanche

St. Louis Blues

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

Colorado Avalanche

N
Nazem Kadri
(C) out — out
Out
C
Cale Makar
(D) out — Makar (upper body) will likely miss a few more games, Corey Masisak of The Denver Post reports Tuesday.
Out

St. Louis Blues

No injuries reported
Box Score
FINAL
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
3
-
St. Louis Blues
Blues
1
St. Louis Blues 1.55
65% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Avalanche @ St. Louis Blues

+28.3 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Louis Blues 65% Sharp Lean
"Blues +130 ML / +164 spread: omega 0.0 vs -155 market + 13% sharp edge = +28 EV (Makar out)"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.2%
Line Movement
Current COL -155 ML / St. Louis Blues +130 ML / Total 6.5
Movement Not provided
TALENT MISMATCH: 17 win differential. Historically overpriced favorite spot. Colorado: Cale Makar OUT (major D impact)
+28.3% EV on Blues ML at +130 (fair -142) and +260 spread per Bovada; sharp 13% spread edge confirms
Model: 49.1% win rate | n=273 — N=273 NHL; 9-5 vs Blues, 10-5 vs Avs; lean ML/spreads profitable last 30d
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega even-money spread obliterates COL -155 market pricing; 13% sharp spread divergence to Blues +164 w/ +28% Bovada EV. Makar out craters Avs road D (26-7-5 becomes vulnerable), Blues 18-12-7 home + recent 2-0 model H2H sweep. MC 45.8% home win undervalued vs vigged 43%; under 6.5 has RLM + 4.3% sharp edge but totals losing tier-wide.
SHARP MONEY
13.0% sharp edge on spread to away (Blues +164), strong signal; RLM on total under; overall sharp favors Blues side
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD St. Louis Blues 1.55
+28.3 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE St. Louis Blues None
+5.2 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL under 6.5
+4.3 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 62%
St. Louis Blues 217
  • Model implies Blues +EV at +217 vs 46.5% win prob (breakeven 31.6%)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
St. Louis Blues 0.0
  • Avalanche without Makar creates defensive vulnerability; MC shows Blues cover +0.1pt edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 19.0
  • MC sims show 46.1% under 19.0 + recent H2H under hit
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Blues ML +217 vs juiced Avs (-217 w/o Makar); model +8.4 EV on dog after H2H win
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