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Mixed Martial Arts
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
Volkov
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Waldo Cortes Acosta Waldo Cortes Acosta -0.5
"Cortes Acosta -0.5 lean (+3.1 EV) on minor whales in 54% model spot, data-poor HW under 2.5"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Waldo Cortes Acosta None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$23690 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (97% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 21 trades Largest: $4018

Player Props Engine

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Alexander Volkov

Waldo Cortes Acosta

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
WAL -100 / ALE -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Alexander Volkov @ Waldo Cortes Acosta
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Alexander Volkov @ Waldo Cortes Acosta

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Waldo Cortes Acosta 55% Lean
"Cortes Acosta -0.5 lean (+3.1 EV) on minor whales in 54% model spot, data-poor HW under 2.5"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model ML: Waldo Cortes Acosta -110 / Alexander Volkov +110 | Spread: Waldo Cortes Acosta -0.5 (-110) | Total: 2.5 (-110)
Movement No movement (model generated)
+3.1 EV on home side at -110; marginal due to data limits
FULL ANALYSIS
Even Bayesian posterior (54% home) with minor $4.7K whale signal on Cortes Acosta provides slim edge vs model -110. Heavyweight styles project under 2.5 rounds (2.3 exp). Poor data (24% quality, N=0) caps at lean tier; MMA reach/style even.
SHARP MONEY
Minor whale volume $4,718 (2 wallets, 85% confidence) on Cortes Acosta
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Waldo Cortes Acosta -0.5
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Waldo Cortes Acosta None
+3.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Waldo Cortes Acosta -110
  • 54% win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) amid minor whale action on home
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Waldo Cortes Acosta -0.5
  • Bayesian posterior + minor whale signal projects 54% home cover probability
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Heavyweight model projects early finish (2.3 expected rounds); totals historically weak
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Volkov ML -115 (+3.1 EV) on 3.5" reach edge (+12% MMA model); fade minor home whales, under 2.5 HW KO spot
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