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Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"BOS ML +8.3pp Bayesian edge + $880k extreme whales; Over 7.5 w/ 20-run MC proj vs 7.5 soft line"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
54%
TOTAL over 7.5
61%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$880749 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (81% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 207 trades Kalshi: 47 trades Largest: $12297
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +118.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
32.3%
ML
209 / -209

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Boston Red Sox

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -111 / 100 ↑ -
Market Consensus -1.5 (186) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 202 / -202 -105 / 105 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox returned Sandoval (biceps) from his rehab assignment Thursday, Chris Henrique of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Thursday that the MRI on Gray's right hamstring did not reveal anything worse than expected, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Toronto Blue Jays

G
George Springer
(DH) 10-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Springer (toe) is nearing a return and will not require a rehab assignment, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Andres Gimenez
(SS) day-to-day — Gimenez is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer (1-3) took the loss Friday, surrendering seven runs on six hits -- including three home runs -- and three walks over 2.1 innings as the Blue Jays fell 8-6 to the Guardians. He failed to strike out a batter.
15-Day-IL
T
Trey Yesavage
(SP) 15-day IL — Yesavage (shoulder) will be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes will receive an MRI on his left hamstring after leaving Friday's game against Cleveland, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Barger (ankles) is ramping up his baseball activities, with the next steps in his rehab program being running the bases and hitting live pitching, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios (elbow) is scheduled to make his next rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk underwent surgery Tuesday to have a screw inserted into his fractured left thumb and is expected to be sidelined about six weeks, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) out — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Out
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (186)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Patrick Sandoval 15-Day-IL
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
George Springer 10-Day-IL
Andres Gimenez Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"BOS ML +8.3pp Bayesian edge + $880k extreme whales; Over 7.5 w/ 20-run MC proj vs 7.5 soft line"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.2%
Line Movement
Current TOR -1.5 -118 / BOS +1.5 +100 | ML TOR -118 / BOS +102 | Total 7.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
Net injury edge to BOS (-1.8%) Multiple IL pitchers both sides → weak staffs, scoring inflation
+8.3pp edge on BOS ML at +102; massive +24 EV on over 7.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives BOS ML 54.2% vs 45.9% market (+8.3pp) backed by $880k extreme whales at 81%. Projections explode to 20 runs (MC 9.8-10.3, Omega 22.5) vs soft 7.5 total amid IL pitcher carnage both sides (net BOS injury edge). Run line even at Omega 0.0, BOS +1.5 covers 60% on variance.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $880k (81% on BOS, institutional tier); Kalshi slight home but whales dominate
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+5.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+9.5 EV 54% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.4 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Boston Red Sox 102
  • Bayesian posterior 54.2% BOS vs market 45.9% (+8.3pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market TOR -1.5; MC margin -0.4 BOS fav in even matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 61%
OVER 7.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 20.1 runs (9.8-10.3)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Extreme whales ($561k) + MC 50.7% Boston spread cover + 70% under 22.5 (proj 20.1 runs) in degraded data spot
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