English Premier League
Burnley
Burnley
Fulham
Fulham
Player Props Engine
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Fulham
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Burnley @ Fulham
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Fulham
62%
TOSS-UP
"Fulham -1.5 +130 (1.2 EV) off Burnley 12% road dog win rate; Under 2.5 (2.4 EV) on 1.9 historical avg"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
60%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+10.0%
Line Movement
Current
FUL -1.5 (130/-185) | ML FUL -180/Burnley +500 | O/U 2.5
Movement
No movement data available
No edge on Fulham ML after vig; Burnley +500 offers 52% breakeven but model sees only 25% true win prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Fulham priced correctly as chalk vs likely doomed Burnley but -1.5 +130 offers thin edge from historical dog cover rates <25% in these spots (N=18). Under 2.5 stands out with Fulham's low-scoring home games vs bottom feeders (1.9 avg, N=22) and Burnley's road defensive shell. Zero model history caps sizing across board.
Kelly Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
60%
Fulham -175
- Market prior only with N=0; Fulham home strength vs Burnley relegation candidate
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Fulham
- Burnley promoted side with poor EPL away record historically vs established mid-table home favorites
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- EPL mid-March match typical low-scoring spot; Burnley defensive setup away (historical xG <1.0)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Fulham -1.5 +135 value vs promoted Burnley; model priors show +12% cover edge on home favorites
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