MLS
Orlando City SC
SC
Inter Miami CF
CF
Whale Activity Detected
$194632 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 79 trades
Kalshi: 282 trades
Largest: $20235
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
44.4%
ML
125 / -125
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAOrlando City SC
Inter Miami CF
Model Lines
MODELSpread
3.5
Moneyline
INT -165
/
ORL 165
Win Probability
62%
-
38%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Orlando City SC @ Inter Miami CF
+24.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Orlando City SC
62%
Lean
"Model 3.8-3.8 goals/even spread vs MIA -1.5/3.5 juice, +13.7pp over 3.5 EV and Orlando +1.5 24 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
33%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-17.4%
Line Movement
Current
MIA -1.5 / 3.5 / MIA -330
Movement
No significant movement
Massive +EV on Orlando ML +600 as posterior 32.6% >> 14.3% implied; home ML -EV at -12.2
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO projects 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.5) and even spread 0.0 vs MIA -1.5/-330 juice, creating +9.3pp Bayesian edge to Orlando ML and +13.7pp to over 3.5. MC sims 3.5-3.2 (+0.2 margin, HIGH edge conf) confirm close game, Orlando +1.5 covers 69%. Extreme whales ($146k home) contradict but quant trumps; mild weather no impact.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $146k from 18 profitable wallets on home (59% confidence), institutional signal despite model divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
60%
Orlando City SC 600
- Away ML posterior 32.6% vs 14.3% implied (+18.3pp raw edge); omega ML away -125 vs market +600
SPREAD PICK
○
62%
Orlando City SC 1.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market MIA -1.5 (1.5pt edge); MC margin +0.2pts projects 69% cover rate for +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
61%
OVER 3.5
- Posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge); omega total 7.5 and MC 6.7 vs market 3.5
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Model 3.8-3.8 goals/even spread vs MIA -1.5/3.5 juice, +13.7pp over 3.5 EV and Orlando +1.5 24 EV
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