Serie A
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
AS Roma
Roma
Whale Activity Detected
$222214 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home
Polymarket: 94 trades
Largest: $4443
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAFiorentina
AS Roma
Model Lines
MODELSpread
0.1
Moneyline
AS -101
/
FIO 101
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Fiorentina @ AS Roma
+1.1 EV
per $100 wagered
AS Roma
64%
Sharp Lean
"Roma ML -175: 65% posterior + extreme whales ($222k vol) yield +2.1 EV vs Fiorentina"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+15.0%
Line Movement
Current
Roma -0.5 (-180/+130), ML Roma -175/Fiorentina +425, Total 2.5 (-110/-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
+EV on home ML due to whale confirmation boosting posterior edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion posterior at 63.6% Roma win nudged to 65% with extreme whale confirmation ($222k institutional volume, 6 wallets). No injuries, rest, or travel flags; stable line shows market efficiency but +1.4pp edge on ML. Poor data (33% signals) and historical overconfidence in leans cap at sharp lean tier; prefer ML over juiced spread.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($222k from 6 profitable wallets, institutional tier) on Roma at 59% consensus
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
65%
AS Roma -175
- 65% win probability exceeds -175 breakeven (63.6%) by 1.4pp with extreme institutional whales ($222k)
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
AS Roma -0.5
- Bayesian posterior fuses to 65% home cover probability vs -0.5 line
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Neutral model projection at 2.5 total in low-data Serie A spot
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Roma ML -165: 62.3% posterior + $205K extreme whale volume (institutional tier) in data-poor Serie A clash
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