Home › NFL › Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
NFL
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Las Vegas Raiders Las Vegas Raiders 4.5
"Raiders +4.5 vs Chiefs: OMEGA line shows 3.5-point market overpricing of KC's record — home divisional dog with identical 3-0 record offers +3.8 EV on the spread."
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
56%
Edge
-12.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Las Vegas Raiders None
58%
TOTAL under 47.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 12.2% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$305434 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 81 trades Kalshi: 26 trades Largest: $23754
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
1.0
Edge: -3.5
Total
46.0
Edge: -1.5
Win Prob
43.5%
ML
130 / -130

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Kansas City Chiefs

Las Vegas Raiders

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 190 / -230 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 191 / -222 -
Sharp Action Best Line 10.5 (-275) - -
Market Consensus 4.5 (-102) ↓ - -
Value Line 4.5 (-109) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 48.0 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 104 / -104 208 / -208 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Kansas City Chiefs

J
Josh Simmons
(OT) out — Simmons (back) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.
Out
L
L'Jarius Sneed
(CB) active — Sneed (knee) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Raiders.
Active
C
Chamarri Conner
(S) active — Conner (knee) was a full participant at practice Wednesday.
Active
M
Mansoor Delane
(CB) active — Delane recorded 10 tackles (seven solo) and a pass breakup in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
N
Nick Bolton
(LB) active — Bolton recorded 11 tackles (eight solo) and a pass breakup in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
T
Tyquan Thornton
(WR) active — Thornton caught both of his targets for 22 yards in Kansas City's 24-10 win over the Dolphins on Sunday.
Active
E
Emmett Johnson
(RB) active — Johnson carried the ball six times for 17 yards and returned one kickoff for 31 yards in Kansas City's 24-10 win over the Dolphins on Sunday.
Active
X
Xavier Worthy
(WR) active — Worthy caught both of his targets for 20 yards during Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
J
Jared Wiley
(TE) active
Active
T
Tyreke Smith
(DE) active
Active
G
Garrett Nussmeier
(QB) active
Active
D
Diego Pounds
(OT) active
Active
J
Jack Pyburn
(LB) active
Active
H
Harrison Butker
(PK) active — Butker went 1-for-2 on field-goal tries and 3-for-3 on extra-point attempts in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
T
Travis Kelce
(TE) active — Kelce caught both of his targets for 59 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
P
Patrick Mahomes
(QB) active — Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes for 246 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins. He also rushed once for one yard.
Active
R
Rashee Rice
(WR) active — Rice caught seven of nine targets for 88 yards in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
K
Kenneth Walker III
(RB) active — Walker rushed 18 times for 70 yards and a touchdown while catching both of his targets for three yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 24-10 win over the Dolphins.
Active
C
Chris Jones
(DT) active
Active
F
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
(DE) active
Active
J
Jalen Royals
(WR) active — Royals caught both of his targets for six yards and a touchdown while logging two tackles on kick coverage in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
Active
J
Jaden Hicks
(S) active — Hicks logged 10 tackles (five solo) during the Chiefs' 33-30 overtime win over the Colts on Sunday.
Active
C
Cyrus Allen
(WR) active — Allen logged three offensive snaps and three special-teams snaps in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
Active
N
Noah Gray
(TE) active — Grey played 40 offensive snaps and 10 special-teams snaps in Sunday's 33-30 overtime win against the Colts.
Active
B
Bryson Eason
(DT) active
Active

Las Vegas Raiders

A
Aidan O'Connell
(QB) active — O'Connell (personal) had his injury designation for Sunday's Week 4 matchup against Kansas City cleared Saturday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.
Active
D
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
(WR) Injured Reserve — Head coach Klint Kubiak said Friday that the hope is that Thornton (undisclosed) will be back at practice ahead of the Raiders' Week 5 road tilt against the Patriots, Levi Edwards of the Raiders' official site reports.
Injured Reserve
H
Hezekiah Masses
(CB) active — Head coach Klint Kubiak told reporters Friday that he views both Masses and Darien Porter as viable starters at outside cornerback opposite Eric Stokes, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Active
D
Darien Porter
(CB) active — Head coach Klint Kubiak expressed confidence Friday in the play of Porter, who didn't play a single defensive snap during the Raiders' Week 3 win over the Saints, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.
Active
J
Jackson Powers-Johnson
(G) out — out
Out
T
Treydan Stukes
(S) active — Stukes logged a second straight full practice Thursday.
Active
J
Jeremy Chinn
(S) active — Chinn recorded eight tackles (seven solo) including 1.0 sacks, and a forced fumble during Sunday's 35-27 win at New Orleans.
Active
N
Nakobe Dean
(LB) active — Dean recorded 12 tackles (11 solo), a pass defensed and a forced fumble during Sunday's 35-27 win at New Orleans.
Active
F
Fernando Mendoza
(QB) active — Mendoza did not play in the Raiders' 35-27 Week 3 win over the Saints.
Active
C
Cody White
(WR) active — The Raiders signed White from their practice squad to their active roster Tuesday.
Active
J
Jack Bech
(WR) Injured Reserve — The Raiders placed Bech (forearm) on injured reserve Tuesday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jalen Nailor
(WR) active — Nailor caught one of his three targets for 16 yards in the Raiders' 35-27 win over the Saints on Sunday.
Active
T
Tre Tucker
(WR) active — Tucker caught all four of his targets for 43 yards during Sunday's 35-27 win over New Orleans.
Active
M
Mike Washington Jr.
(RB) active — Washington turned five carries into 54 yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints.
Active
B
Bryce Cabeldue
(G) active
Active
D
Darrell Luter Jr.
(CB) active
Active
D
Dalton Johnson
(S) active
Active
J
JJ Pegues
(DT) active
Active
M
Matt Gay
(PK) active — Gay made all three of his field-goal attempts and both extra-point tries in Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints.
Active
M
Michael Mayer
(TE) active — Mayer caught all three of his targets for 32 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints.
Active
K
Kirk Cousins
(QB) active — Cousins completed 22 of 33 passes for 248 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints. He added three rushing yards on three carries.
Active
A
Ashton Jeanty
(RB) active — Jeanty carried the ball 19 times for 56 yards and caught all three of his targets for 37 yards in Sunday's 35-27 win over the Saints.
Active
K
Kwity Paye
(DE) active
Active
B
Brock Bowers
(TE) active — Bowers (knee) is active for Sunday's Week 3 matchup against the Saints.
Active
D
Dareke Young
(WR) active — Young (hamstring) was a full participant in practice Thursday.
Active
Game Preview
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread 10.5 (-275)
Total Over 48.0
Key Injuries
Josh Simmons Out
L'Jarius Sneed Active
Aidan O'Connell Active
Dont'e Thornton Jr. Injured Reserve
Analysis starts at kickoff

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Las Vegas Raiders 62% Lean
"Raiders +4.5 vs Chiefs: OMEGA line shows 3.5-point market overpricing of KC's record — home divisional dog with identical 3-0 record offers +3.8 EV on the spread."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 69%
Edge -12.7%
Line Movement
Current KC -4.5, Total 47.5
Omega line (KC -1.0) vs market (KC -4.5): 3.5-point gap suggests market overpricing Chiefs Raiders home underdog at Allegiant Stadium — home field advantage not fully reflected in inflated spread No situational flags detected for rest, travel, or weather
Chiefs moneyline at -225 requires a 69.2% win rate to break even. Our model projects only 56.5%, yielding negative EV. The juice on the favorite is too high to justify a bet.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market is overpricing the Chiefs' 3-0 start by laying 4.5 points on the road against a 3-0 Raiders team. OMEGA's independent line (KC -1.0) suggests the true spread should be closer to a field goal, creating a 3.5-point gap. The Raiders at home as a divisional underdog offer value on both the spread and moneyline, though the Chiefs' proven elite talent keeps confidence capped. The total is a lean under based on the model's 46.0 projection, but the edge is thin.
SHARP MONEY
The large gap between OMEGA's independent line (KC -1.0) and the market spread (KC -4.5) suggests the market has overcorrected for KC's 3-0 start. Sharp money often fades inflated favorites, especially when the underlying model disagrees by 3+ points. Without Pinnacle vs retail data, the OMEGA line divergence is the primary sharp signal.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Las Vegas Raiders 4.5
+3.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Las Vegas Raiders None
+5.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 47.5
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Las Vegas Raiders 185
  • OMEGA projects Raiders win probability at 43.5%, but market implied probability is only 35.1% (185)
  • This 8.4% gap represents a significant undervaluation of the home underdog
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Las Vegas Raiders 4.5
  • OMEGA independent line (KC -1.0) vs market (KC -4.5) shows a 3.5-point gap — the market is overpricing the Chiefs' record, not their true scoring margin
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 47.5
  • OMEGA projected total (46.0) is 1.5 points below the market (47.5), suggesting the market is overestimating scoring in a divisional matchup that tends to be more defensive
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Raiders +4.5 and ML +180 offer value vs OMEGA model; O'Connell status is the swing factor — if he plays, take the home dog.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE