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MLB
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox None
"Red Sox moneyline small edge (+4.9pp Bayesian) and over total with 65% model probability, tempered by data quality concerns."
EV / $100
+0.7
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+4.9%
Size
0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1331458 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 471 trades Kalshi: 52 trades Largest: $160919
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +112.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
34.1%
ML
193 / -193

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -104 / -116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 101 / -111 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-475) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-177) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -167 / 167 106 / -106 O/U 114 / -114
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

G
Garrett Whitlock
(RP) 15-day IL — Whitlock (knee) threw from flat ground Thursday but has been shut down after experiencing discomfort, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) 10-day IL — Anthony (finger) felt discomfort while hitting off a tee Thursday and has been shut down from swinging, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — Red Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters Wednesday that Casas (abdomen/knee) is close to being cleared to swing a bat, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — Sandoval (biceps/elbow) threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) said that he's scheduled to throw a second live batting practice session Sunday, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez (shoulder) has started hitting flips, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Story
(SS) 10-day IL — Story underwent surgery to repair a sports hernia Thursday and will be sidelined 6-10 weeks, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 60-day IL — no
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) has been making throws out to 105 feet three days per week, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Harris was optioned to Triple-A Rochester on Saturday, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — Oviedo (elbow) will be reevaluated by Dr. Keith Meister in two weeks to determine his progress, Marcos Grunfeld of ElEmergente.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 60-day IL — no
60-Day-IL
A
Angel Martinez
(LF) day-to-day — Martinez was removed from Saturday's game against the Red Sox with left foot inflammation, Paul Hoynes of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Kwan
(CF) Bereavement — Kwan went 3-for-4 with an RBI in Sunday's 3-1 win over Philadelphia.
bereavement
E
Erik Sabrowski
(RP) 15-day IL — Sabrowski (elbow) underwent an MRI on Tuesday which confirmed inflammation but no structural damage, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez (shoulder) began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Omaha on Friday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-475)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Garrett Whitlock 15-Day-IL
Roman Anthony 10-Day-IL
Gabriel Arias 60-Day-IL
Angel Martinez Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

+0.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"Red Sox moneyline small edge (+4.9pp Bayesian) and over total with 65% model probability, tempered by data quality concerns."
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 48%
Edge +4.9%
Line Movement
Current ML: Home -107 / Away -112; Total 7.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Slight positive edge on Red Sox moneyline; value is marginal
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows slight edge on Red Sox moneyline (53.2% vs 48.3% implied) with sharp money confirming away side. The total over at 65.2% posterior vs 50% implied offers larger edge but conflicts with Pinnacle shading under and degraded data quality. Confidence is reduced to account for these uncertainties.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 1.2% on moneyline and 18.7% on spread favoring away; strong signal
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+0.7 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.0
+24.5 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox -112
  • Bayesian posterior 53.2% vs market 48.3% for away; sharp money confirms
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 7.0
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% implied; strong model projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians spread at +360 offers +50% EV vs fair value — the only real edge in a game with no pitcher data and degraded signals
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