Home › MLB › Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.2% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 2.2
"Reds +2.2 (56% cover, +8.2 EV) as Omega sees even game vs juiced Pirates line; over 8 (65% +21 EV) on 20-run MC proj"
EV / $100
+8.2
Win Prob
51%
Edge
+0.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
51%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$272106 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (80% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 175 trades Kalshi: 26 trades Largest: $10651
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
33.6%
ML
197 / -197

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Cincinnati Reds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -134 / 112 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -129 / 117 -
Value Line - -141 / 114 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (300) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (158) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value 170 / -170 -123 / 123 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 15-day IL — Williamson was removed from Wednesday's game against the Rockies with left shoulder fatigue, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) walked one and struck out one over a scoreless inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Suarez's left oblique remains tender, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) Bereavement — Ashcraft walked one and struck out one over a scoreless 10th inning to earn the save in Sunday's 7-4 win over Minnesota.
bereavement
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) will make his next rehab start Saturday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Jones (elbow) struck out five over three perfect innings in his first rehab start with Single-A Bradenton on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — Triolo (knee) went 3-for-4 with a home run, a walk, three RBI and an additional run Tuesday in a rehab game with Double-A Altoona.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Sullivan owns a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and 11:5 K:BB in 7.2 innings over his three appearances since being promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 10.
Day-To-Day
D
Dominic Fletcher
(RF) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Fletcher to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo is sidelined at Double-A Altoona with recurring left shoulder discomfort, Jose Negron of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (300)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Brandon Williamson 15-Day-IL
Caleb Ferguson 15-Day-IL
Jared Jones 60-Day-IL
Jared Triolo 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 56% Lean
"Reds +2.2 (56% cover, +8.2 EV) as Omega sees even game vs juiced Pirates line; over 8 (65% +21 EV) on 20-run MC proj"
51% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 51%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.6%
Line Movement
Current Pittsburgh Pirates -2.2 / Cincinnati Reds +2.2 | Total 8.0 | ML Pittsburgh -136 / Cincinnati +118
Movement No significant movement detected
+10.3 EV on Cincinnati ML at +118; posterior edge +8.3pp over market-implied 45.8%
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 and Bayesian away cover 56.3% signal value on Reds +2.2 amid Pirates regression risk (ELO > scoring). MC 20.1 projected runs crushes 8.0 total (over 65.2% posterior) despite historical totals weakness. Whale home $66k contradicts but sharp ML away and +EV spread away confirm; injuries net minor home edge.
SHARP MONEY
ML sharp edge 1.9% away moderate; spread sharp home strong but Bayesian posterior favors away cover 56.3%
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 2.2
+8.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+10.3 EV 51%
TOTAL over 8.0
+21.4 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 51%
Cincinnati Reds 118
  • Away ML posterior 50.6% vs market 45.8% (+8.3pp edge); breakeven 45.9% exceeded
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Cincinnati Reds 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Reds cover +2.2 vs market 50%; Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2 shows 2.2-pt edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC projected 20.1 runs, Omega total 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds +2.2 (56% model vs 50%, +7.5EV) + Over 8 (65% vs 50%, +24EV); Omega even/22.5 vs mkt -2.2/8
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE