Home › Ligue 1 › AJ Auxerre @ Strasbourg
Ligue 1
AJ Auxerre
AJ Auxerre
Auxerre
1 - 5
Final
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω DDN SI PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Strasbourg Strasbourg -0.5
EV / $100
-5.9
Win Prob
52%
Edge
-2.5%
MONEYLINE Strasbourg None
52%
TOTAL under 3.5
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

AJ Auxerre

Strasbourg

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
AJ Auxerre
Auxerre
1
-
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
5
Strasbourg -0.5
55% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Strasbourg -0.5 (-120) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T09:09:39.098248 UTC

None vs market — home side only because model rates Strasbourg a marginal 52% favorite at home; the -120 price already bakes that in

Moneyline: Strasbourg (-105) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T08:08:27.348889 UTC

Coin-flip pricing: -105 implies 51.2%, our independent scoring model/team strength estimate is ~51% — this is vig, not edge

Total: under 3.5 (-170) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T04:40:40.130096 UTC

No genuine edge — -170 implies 63% and our model only projects ~55% under 3.5; the under is heavily juiced because the market already expects a low-scoring spot

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

AJ Auxerre @ Strasbourg

+-5.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Strasbourg 55% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Auxerre @ Strasbourg: market prices home edge we can't verify — 52% model vs 54.5% needed at -120; all sides , lean under 3.5 with zero price value at -170.
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 54%
Edge -2.5%
Line Movement
Current Strasbourg -0.5 (-120), Total 3.5
Movement No opening line history provided
Strasbourg -0.5 at -120 requires 54.5%; our model projects only ~52% — the home edge is already priced in. No usable edge either direction on the spread or ML.
FULL ANALYSIS
Strasbourg is priced at -0.5/-120 purely on home edge — their 2-1-5 record is worse than Auxerre's 3-1-4, and our model puts the home win probability at ~52% vs the 54.5% required. The under 3.5 at -170 is the market shouting low-event game, but there's no price edge at 63% implied vs our ~55%. No sharp, whale, or movement data exists for this match; every market is a PASS, with the directional lean to Strasbourg and the under.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Strasbourg -0.5
-5.9 EV 55%
MONEYLINE Strasbourg None
52%
TOTAL under 3.5
-13.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 52%
Strasbourg -105
  • Coin-flip pricing: -105 implies 51.2%, our independent scoring model/team strength estimate is ~51% — this is vig, not edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Strasbourg -0.5
  • None vs market — home side only because model rates Strasbourg a marginal 52% favorite at home; the -120 price already bakes that in
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 3.5
  • No genuine edge — -170 implies 63% and our model only projects ~55% under 3.5; the under is heavily juiced because the market already expects a low-scoring spot
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Strasbourg ML -120 at 57% model win rate (+4.5 EV/100) — small home favorite edge, but no validated slate means half-unit stability, not conviction.
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