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Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +54.0% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -1.5
"BOS spread +55% EV on sharp divergence (14.8%) + Pinnacle fair value, MC even matchup undervalues home cover"
EV / $100
+5.5
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
60%
TOTAL over 7.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$7421 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 5 trades Largest: $1899
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -122 / 111 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (340) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (172) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 186 / -186 -117 / 117 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

B
Brice Turang
(2B) day-to-day — Turang is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Red Sox due to an ankle/foot injury, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Vaughn
(1B) 10-day IL — Vaughn will have a follow-up appointment with his hand surgeon Thursday and hopes to be cleared at that time to progress to the next step of his rehab, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jackson Chourio
(CF) 10-day IL — Chourio will undergo follow-up imaging on his fractured left wrist Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig allowed a hit and struck out one over a scoreless inning to earn the save in Thursday's 5-2 win over the Angels.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) will report to the Brewers' spring training complex in Arizona later this week to resume throwing live batting practice, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Yoho (calf) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eduardo Garcia
(OF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas Pannone
(RP) day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out

Boston Red Sox

J
Justin Slaten
(RP) day-to-day — Slaten was unavailable for Tuesday's game against the Brewers due to oblique soreness, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that Casas (knee) is headed for imaging on his ribs after he tried to swing a bat Monday and "it didn't go well," Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford (wrist) is on track to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester this weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (elbow) did not make his scheduled rehab start for Double-A Portland on Sunday, because the game was postponed due to weather, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports. The left-hander will now start Wednesday for Triple-A Worcester.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 15-day IL — Oviedo will seek a second opinion on his elbow this week after an initial MRI was inconclusive, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (340)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Brice Turang Day-To-Day
Andrew Vaughn 10-Day-IL
Justin Slaten Day-To-Day
Triston Casas 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ Boston Red Sox

+5.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 65% Sharp Lean
"BOS spread +55% EV on sharp divergence (14.8%) + Pinnacle fair value, MC even matchup undervalues home cover"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.0%
Line Movement
Current BOS -136 / MIL +113 | Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on home ML at -136 (breakeven 57.6%, need 62.6%+ confidence). Massive +55% EV on BOS spread +320 at Bovada per +EV analysis.
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB spreads profitable in lean tier (58.7% N=75); reduce confidence per tier data
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money divergence 14.8% on BOS spread with +55% EV at Bovada +320 pricing vs Pinnacle fair 36.9% prob. Omega/MC project absurd 12-12/24 total vs market 7.5, creating over edge despite total tier losses. Recent H2H mixed (3-2 BOS ML/Under) but model 14-8 vs MIL boosts away ML lean. Calibration demands conservative 60-65 max given overconfidence gaps.
SHARP MONEY
14.8% sharp edge on spread favoring home (Pinnacle fair 36.9% vs retail 23.8%), strong signal despite weak ML sharp side.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox -1.5
+5.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers -259
  • Model win prob 46.4% vs -259 implied 72.1% requires 77%+ confidence which we lack
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
  • MC sims show 46.4% Brewers cover 0.0 vs 45.4% Red Sox (SE 0.5%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC shows 47.3% under 24.0 vs 45.4% over despite high 24.0 total projection
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even MC sims give Brewers 1% spread edge at 0.0 but -259 ML juice kills value; data too thin for conviction
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