Home › MLB › Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
9 - 7
Final
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
72% Strong
72% Strong
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Dollander edge + MC 69% Rockies ML (+92 EV at +179), over 7.5 smashes 7.5 total (proj 20 runs)"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
69%
Edge
+18.9%
Size
1.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
69%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +219.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
38.0%
ML
163 / -163

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Colorado Rockies

Philadelphia Phillies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -220 / 180 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -208 / 189 -
Value Line - -240 / 188 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (215) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (107) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 113 / -113 -200 / 200 O/U 113 / -113
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
suspension
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Pop on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right calf strain.
15-Day-IL
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
9
-
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
7
Colorado Rockies 1.5
72% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 72% Strong
"Dollander edge + MC 69% Rockies ML (+92 EV at +179), over 7.5 smashes 7.5 total (proj 20 runs)"
69% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 69%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.9%
Line Movement
Current PHI -219 ML / COL +179 ML; PHI -1.5 -219 RL; O/U 7.5
Movement No significant movement
Massive +92 EV on Rockies ML at +179 vs model 68.9% win prob (market implies 35.8%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Dollander's 3.38 ERA torches Luzardo's 5.09 in Citizens Bank (MC 11.3-8.6 COL win by 2.7, 68.9% away win). Bayesian +8.4pp ML edge away ignores market PHI shade, over 7.5 crushes at 65% posterior (proj 19.9 total). Whales home extreme but sharp ML away + pitcher mismatch = fade public juice.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp ML edge 2.3% away + MC/Omega/Pitcher convergence outweighs whale home action
Recommended Sizing
1.5u
Positive EV with multiple confirming factors. Standard sizing.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+8.5 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+92.2 EV 69% 1.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+20.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 69%
Colorado Rockies 179
  • Omega ML -163 + MC 68.9% win prob vs market +179 (35.8% implied), Bayesian model edge +8.4pp away
SPREAD PICK
● 72%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • MC projects Rockies +2.7 margin (11.3-8.6), covers +1.5 in 82% sims vs market heavy PHI juice
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) + MC proj 19.9 total vs soft 7.5 line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies +138 offers +48 EV (62% model vs 42% implied); MC 72% under 22.5 w/ extreme whales on PHI
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