Home › MLB › Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.5% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"NYY RL +15.2% sharp edge + extreme $908k whales home (74% conf) despite 0% Bayesian ML edge"
EV / $100
+3.8
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+13.6%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$911723 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (73% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 275 trades Kalshi: 795 trades Largest: $45538

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Baltimore Orioles

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -179 / 147 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -171 / 153 -
Value Line - -186 / 148 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (122) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-115)
De-Vigged Fair Value 130 / -130 -163 / 163 O/U -107 / 107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Baltimore Orioles

J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (hand) expects to resume his rehab assignment next week, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Trevor Rogers
(SP) 15-day IL — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Friday that he expects Rogers (illness) to return from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hans Crouse
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
W
Will Robertson
(LF) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Noda
(1B) day-to-day — The Orioles reassigned Noda to Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — Enns (foot) threw a clean inning in a rehab outing for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL

New York Yankees

C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow) pitched 5.1 innings, allowing one run on five hits while striking out eight batters in his rehab outing with Double-A Somerset on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) struck out three and allowed allowed three earned runs on three hits and zero walks across 5.2 innings Wednesday in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset.
15-Day-IL
J
Jasson Dominguez
(LF) day-to-day — Dominguez was diagnosed with a left elbow contusion after exiting Wednesday's game against the Rangers in the fourth inning following a hit-by-pitch, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Angel Chivilli
(RP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Ben Hess
(SP) day-to-day — Double-A Somerset placed Hess on its 7-day injured list April 18 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees placed Stanton (calf) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — The Yankees have yet to decide whether Volpe (shoulder) will be activated from the 10-day injured list for their series this weekend against the Orioles, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (235)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jackson Holliday 10-Day-IL
Trevor Rogers 15-Day-IL
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Gerrit Cole 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

+3.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 65% Sharp Lean
"NYY RL +15.2% sharp edge + extreme $908k whales home (74% conf) despite 0% Bayesian ML edge"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +13.6%
Line Movement
Current ML: NYY -175 / BAL +144; RL: NYY -1.5 -175; Total: 8.5
Movement No significant movement
injury_net_home_edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Yankees hold net +1.9% injury edge with multiple BAL day-to-day; extreme whale action $908k vol at 74% home conf aligns with strong 15.2% sharp spread home signal and +45.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair (43.4% home cover). Bayesian ML posterior flat at 63.6% caps juice play; Schlittler 1.51 ERA projects under bias. Degraded data (no pitchers/MC) limits to leans.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 15.2% sharp edge on spread home + weak ML sharp away offset by overall home signals
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -175
  • Bayesian posterior matches market at 63.6% but fails 5% breakeven threshold (need 68.6%)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Strong sharp divergence 15.2% favoring home RL + +45.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 8.5
  • Low-ERA pitcher leaders (Schlittler 1.51) + injury impacts reduce lambda (home -8.7%, away -10.6%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
BAL +1.5 +145: +38.7 EV (Pinnacle 56.6% cover vs retail 41% implied); whales hammer NYY ML
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE