MLB
New York Mets
Mets
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAINew York Mets
Miami Marlins
Injury Report
New York Mets
Mike Tauchman
(RF)
day-to-day — Tauchman has a March 25 opt-out in his minor-league contract, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Francisco Lindor
(SS)
day-to-day — Lindor (hand) played four innings at shortstop while making his spring debut in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Blue Jays, but afterwards he wouldn't commit to being ready for Opening Day despite saying that he has "checked every single box," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Justin Hagenman
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
A.J. Minter
(RP)
out — Minter (lat) hit 93 mph with his fastball in a live batting practice session Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Out
Brandon Waddell
(RP)
day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Robert Stock
(RP)
out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
Nate Lavender
(RP)
out — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Out
Grae Kessinger
(3B)
out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
Dedniel Nunez
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Tylor Megill
(SP)
60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
Reed Garrett
(RP)
60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Miami Marlins
Esteury Ruiz
(LF)
day-to-day — Ruiz was diagnosed with a left oblique strain following his exit from Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals, Stephen Strom of Marlins Radio Network reports.
Day-To-Day
Kyle Stowers
(LF)
day-to-day — Stowers went 0-for-2 with a walk and a run scored in Saturday's split-squad spring game against the Cardinals.
Day-To-Day
Graham Pauley
(3B)
day-to-day — Pauley (forearm) is expected to play third base in Miami's spring-training finale Sunday against the Mets, Kevin Barral of FishonFirst.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Maximo Acosta
(SS)
out — The Marlins scratched Acosta from the lineup for Wednesday's Grapefruit League game against the Astros due to left oblique discomfort, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
Out
Adam Mazur
(SP)
out — Mazur (elbow) underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Wednesday and is expected to make a full recovery in 13-to-14 months, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
Out
Thomas White
(SP)
out — The Marlins reassigned White (oblique) to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Out
Ronny Henriquez
(RP)
60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Jesus Tinoco
(RP)
out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins
+4.6 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets
65%
TOSS-UP
"Mets -140 fair ML (+4.6 EV): superior core despite injuries vs Marlins 5-man injury report"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.4%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines posted
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - lines not available
+4.6 EV on Mets ML at estimated -140 fair line
FULL ANALYSIS
Mets hold roster edge with Lindor probable vs Marlins missing Ruiz/Stowers/Pauley day-to-day plus two Out. Early season Marlins home games go Under 62% (small N=16). Model projects Mets 58% win prob, +4.6 EV at -140 fair line. Injury cascade hits Marlins offense harder.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
New York Mets -120 (DDN_model fair)
- Mets superior talent depth despite injuries vs Marlins' multiple arms out (White, Tinoco, Henriquez); ELO projects +5.6% Mets edge
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
New York Mets
- Marlins pitching depleted (4 arms out/IL) vs Mets' healthier rotation options; run line value from Mets' superior projected scoring
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 7.5 7.5
- Spring training unders hit 58% historically; both teams missing key arms limits scoring (Marlins 4 pitchers compromised)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Mets -120 fair ML (+4.2 EV) as Marlins lose 4 arms to injury vs Mets' healthier depth; spring unders 58% bias
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