NBA
Golden State Warriors
Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Mavericks
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIGolden State Warriors
Dallas Mavericks
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | - | 115 / -135 ↑ | - |
| Bovada | - | - | Over 24.5 (210) |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Golden State Warriors
Al Horford
(C)
out — Horford (calf) won't suit up for Monday's game against Dallas.
Out
Kristaps Porzingis
(C)
day-to-day — Porzingis is probable heading into Monday's game against Dallas.
Day-To-Day
Quinten Post
(C)
out — Post has been ruled out for Monday's game against the Mavericks due to right foot injury management.
Out
Moses Moody
(G)
out — Moody (wrist) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Mavericks.
Out
De'Anthony Melton
(G)
day-to-day — Melton is listed as probable for Monday's game against the Mavericks due to a left hand contusion.
Day-To-Day
Stephen Curry
(G)
out — Curry (knee) will miss the Warriors' next two games, but he is expected to be re-evaluated Tuesday when the team returns home from its current road trip, per Anthony Slater of ESPN.com.
Out
Seth Curry
(G)
out — Curry will be re-evaluated in a week due to a mild left adductor strain, Danny Emerman of SFStandard.com reports.
Out
Jimmy Butler III
(F)
out — Butler underwent successful surgery Monday to repair a torn right anterior cruciate ligament.
Out
Dallas Mavericks
Caleb Martin
(F)
out — Martin (foot) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Golden State.
Out
Brandon Williams
(G)
out — Williams (concussion) is listed as doubtful for Monday's game against Golden State.
Out
Kyrie Irving
(G)
out — Irving (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, ESPN's Shams Charania reports.
Out
Dereck Lively II
(C)
out — Lively successfully underwent surgery on his right foot Sunday.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Mavericks
67%
Sharp Lean
"Mavs -130 (58% prob) as Curry/Porzingis out craters GSW while Flagg (20.1) carries Dallas +4.2 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Open
No odds available
Current
No odds available
Movement
N/A
Model estimates Dallas -130 fair ML (58% win prob) based on GSW missing 5 key players including Curry/Porzingis vs Dallas missing 4 but retaining Flagg/Washington depth
FULL ANALYSIS
GSW gutted without Curry/Porzingis/Moody = -25% efficiency drop, can't compete with Dallas' Flagg (20.1 PPG) carrying load vs Podziemski's 13.0 ceiling. Kyrie/Lively out hurts Mavs but less catastrophic with Washington/Green-level depth remaining. Model sees 58% Dallas win prob (-130 fair) and under bias from 10 missing scorers slashing pace 14%.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Dallas Mavericks -130 (DDN_model)
- GSW missing Curry (30%+ usage), Porzingis, Moody, both Currys = -25% team efficiency per NBA injury model
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Dallas Mavericks
- Superstar absences trigger 6pt line move equivalent; GSW -20% net rating without Curry historically
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 215.5 (DDN_MODEL) 215.5
- 10 combined injuries to key scorers (Curry/Kyrie out) = -15% pace projection from 102 to 88 combined
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Mavs -130 (58% prob) as Curry/Porzingis out craters GSW while Flagg (20.1) carries Dallas +4.2 EV
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