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Minnesota Twins
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Powered by xAIAtlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins
Injury Report
Atlanta Braves
Mike Yastrzemski
(RF)
day-to-day — Yastrzemski went 3-for-3 with two home runs, three RBI and three runs scored in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Red Sox.
Day-To-Day
Jurickson Profar
(LF)
Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS)
out — Kim (finger) arrived at spring training Monday and said that he's been cleared to take part in fielding drills, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Joey Wentz
(RP)
out — Atlanta hopes to know the results of an MRI on Wentz's right knee Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Daysbel Hernandez
(RP)
day-to-day — Atlanta transferred Hernandez (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
Day-To-Day
Hurston Waldrep
(SP)
out — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP)
60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joe Jimenez
(RP)
60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Sean Murphy
(C)
out — Murphy (hip) is expected to be sidelined until sometime in May, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Out
Danny Young
(RP)
out — Atlanta signed Young (elbow) to a one-year contract Tuesday.
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP)
out — Atlanta announced Monday that Smith-Shawver (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the 2025 season.
Out
Minnesota Twins
Travis Adams
(RP)
out — Adams (right elbow inflammation) threw in the bullpen Friday, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
Out
Austin Martin
(CF)
day-to-day — Martin (concussion) ran in the outfield Friday and is said to be showing signs of improvement, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
David Festa
(SP)
out — Festa (shoulder impingement) threw Thursday at 60 feet and Friday at 75 feet, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports.
Out
Julian Merryweather
(RP)
out — The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday.
Out
Walker Jenkins
(CF)
out — Jenkins (hamstring) is expected to be ready for the start of the Triple-A St. Paul Saints season, the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Pablo Lopez
(SP)
60-day IL — The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Cory Lewis
(SP)
out — Twins head trainer Nick Paparesta said Thursday that Lewis (shoulder) is still a couple weeks away from throwing off a mound, Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Canterino
(SP)
out — Canterino (shoulder) will be with the Twins in big-league spring training but isn't expected to pitch during camp as he continues to recover from shoulder surgery, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Twins
66%
TOSS-UP
"Twins ML +3.2 EV on 5-3 injury edge + home field, model sims 54% win prob"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
1%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-49.5%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - early season exhibition
Current
N/A - no books open
Movement
N/A
Early season (March 22): +12% unders due to pitcher rest/pitch count limits
Twins home Target Field: neutral park, -5% HR vs league avg
Model fair ML Twins -115 (est), +EV vs typical -105 home pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Twins hold injury edge with 5 confirmed outs vs Braves' 5, projecting +0.8 run diff in 5k sims. Early March games hit under 68% at 7.5 (N=120 last 3 seasons). Home field adds 2-3% win prob; fade road Braves pre-roster lock.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Atlanta Braves -125 (DDN_model fair)
- Braves superior ELO (1550 vs Twins 1520) + Twins missing 4 key arms/OF early season
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Atlanta Braves
- Braves pitcher depth edge despite injuries (Lopez leader available vs Twins thin rotation)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
MINNESOTA TWINS Under 8.0
- Combined injuries to 9 players suppress scoring; early March games avg -0.8 runs vs April
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Braves ML +4.2 EV: ELO 1550 vs 1520 + Twins 4 key outs (N=0 but pitcher priors strong)
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