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MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Chicago White Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.9% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -2.2
"Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away 43.4%) despite whale home action"
EV / $100
+3.6
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
55%
TOTAL under 8.0
53%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1574058 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 412 trades Kalshi: 943 trades Largest: $319165

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Seattle Mariners

Chicago White Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 109 / -131 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 113 / -125 -
Value Line - 106 / -132 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-380) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-152) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -143 / 143 119 / -119 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) will return from the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Astros, Shannon Drayer of SeattleSports.com reports
15-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL

Chicago White Sox

A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — Manager Will Venable said Saturday that Hays (calf) has resumed taking live batting practice and could begin running the bases next week, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Benintendi
(LF) day-to-day — Benintendi is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Angels.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will run the bases this weekend before beginning a rehab assignment next week if all goes well, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Feb. 10.
60-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Pereira on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right pectoral strain.
10-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Berroa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) has thrown seven bullpen sessions as part of his rehab process, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-380)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Bryce Miller 15-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 60-Day-IL
Austin Hays 10-Day-IL
Andrew Benintendi Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

+3.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 58% Lean
"Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away 43.4%) despite whale home action"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.5%
Line Movement
Current Mariners -2.2 / White Sox +2.2 | O/U 8.0 | ML Mariners -143 / White Sox +120
Movement No significant movement detected
Neutral calibrated edge (0%) vs vigged market yields negative EV on away ML; slight +0.1 EV on home ML underdog
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money shows 19.3% spread edge on Mariners -2.2 (+47.7% EV at select books) despite whales ($774k extreme) on White Sox ML. Bayesian ML posteriors flat at 54.5% Mariners win prob (no edge), equal injuries (-7% both). Totals neutral/losing historically; low 8.0 line but no weather/pitchers to confirm under.
SHARP MONEY
19.3% sharp edge on spread favoring Mariners cover; weak 0.8% on ML. +EV analysis confirms +47.7% on away spread at select books
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -2.2
+3.6 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Chicago White Sox None
+0.1 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.0
-2.1 EV 53% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Chicago White Sox 120
  • Slight +EV (+0.1) as our 45.5% exceeds vigged breakeven (45.5%); extreme whale volume ($774k, 80% on home)
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Seattle Mariners -2.2
  • Strong sharp divergence (19.3%) and +47.7% EV on away spread vs Pinnacle fair value (away cover 43.4%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 53%
UNDER 8.0
  • Pinnacle fair value slight under lean (50.2%); totals historically losing (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mariners -2.2: 19.3% sharp spread edge +47.7% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away 43.4%) despite whale home action
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