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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.9% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 2.2
"Rockies +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge) & Over 7.5 (+15pp, proj 20 total) vs sharp/public split"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
40%
Edge
-10.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
40%
TOTAL over 7.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 16.8% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1303300 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (84% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 362 trades Kalshi: 113 trades Largest: $53660
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
38.0%
ML
163 / -163

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -215 / 175 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -207 / 188 -
Value Line - -245 / 190 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (220) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (108) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 114 / -114 -199 / 199 O/U 113 / -113
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is likely to begin a rehab assignment shortly, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL

Philadelphia Phillies

K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — Rojas (shoulder) is starting in center field and batting leadoff in Thursday's Grapefruit League contest against Atlanta, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
suspension
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Backhus on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left elbow inflammation.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — The Phillies placed Pop on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right calf strain.
15-Day-IL
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (220)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
RJ Petit 60-Day-IL
McCade Brown 60-Day-IL
Keaton Anthony Day-To-Day
Johan Rojas suspension
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Philadelphia Phillies

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 56% Lean
"Rockies +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge) & Over 7.5 (+15pp, proj 20 total) vs sharp/public split"
40% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 40%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -10.0%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -2.2 / Rockies +2.2 | O/U 7.5 | ML Phillies -215 / Rockies +182
Movement No significant line movement detected
Positive EV on Rockies ML (+182) at 40% our prob vs 31.8% market prior (+8.2pp edge); spread and total also +EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Posteriors flag +6.3pp edge on Rockies +2.2 cover (56.3% vs 50% market) anchored by Omega even spread and MC 47% away win at 0. Bayesian fuses to 40% Rockies ML vs 32% implied (+8.2pp, 12.8 EV/$100) despite whales extreme home. Over 7.5 crushes with 65.2% posterior (+15pp), Omega/MC ~20 total vs market 7.5 in low-agreement spot.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+12.8 EV 40%
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 40%
Colorado Rockies 182
  • Away posterior 40% vs market 31.8% (+8.2pp); Omega ML away -163
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Colorado Rockies 2.2
  • Away cover posterior 56.3% vs market 50% (+6.3pp); Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 7.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega total 22.5 vs 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies +2.2 at 56.3% posterior (+6.3pp edge, 7.5 EV) fades juiced Phillies; over 7.5 +15pp vs model 22.5 total
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