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Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.7% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 1.5
"ATL +135 ML +18 EV (50% model vs 38% market) + over 7.5 (65% posterior, MC 20.3 total avg)"
EV / $100
+32.1
Win Prob
50%
Edge
+0.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
50%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$302777 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 198 trades Kalshi: 278 trades Largest: $8361
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
31.6%
ML
217 / -217

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Atlanta Braves

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -162 / 136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -156 / 140 -
Value Line - -175 / 138 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (265) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (136) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 145 / -145 -148 / 148 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Atlanta Braves

R
Raisel Iglesias
(RP) 15-day IL — Iglesias (shoulder) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dylan Dodd
(RP) 15-day IL — Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ronald Acuna Jr.
(RF) 10-day IL — Manager Walt Weiss said Sunday that Acuna has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his left hamstring, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Thursday that Murphy (hip) will likely rejoin the club for its series early next week in Seattle, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Schwellenbach (elbow) has yet to begin a throwing program and will not make his season debut until after the All-Star break, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Tuesday that Waldrep (elbow) will throw a bullpen session in about a week and could be ready to rejoin the team in June, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Kim (finger) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Columbus this week, Grant McAuley of the Marietta Daily Journal reports.
10-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Seattle Mariners

B
Brendan Donovan
(3B) 10-day IL — Donovan (groin) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Arkansas on Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cal Raleigh
(C) day-to-day — Raleigh is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Royals due to right side soreness and is considered day-to-day, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners selected Wilson's contract from Triple-A Tacoma on Monday.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Mariners manager Justin Hollander told reporters Friday that an MRI on Brash revealed "trace inflammation" in his right lat and no signs of structural damage, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — Miller (oblique) is scheduled to make his next rehab start with High-A Everett on Wednesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (265)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Raisel Iglesias 15-Day-IL
Dylan Dodd 15-Day-IL
Brendan Donovan 10-Day-IL
Cal Raleigh Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners

+32.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 60% Lean
"ATL +135 ML +18 EV (50% model vs 38% market) + over 7.5 (65% posterior, MC 20.3 total avg)"
50% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 50%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +0.3%
Line Movement
Current SEA -1.5 -163 / ATL +1.5 +137 (est), O/U 7.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
Strong +EV on ATL ML (+135) at 50.3% our prob vs 38% implied; total over 7.5 +24.5 EV at 65.2% prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion flags -12.3pp edge on ATL ML (50.3% posterior vs 62% implied) confirmed by MC 54.9% away wins and EXTREME whale volume $299K on away. Total market at 7.5 ignores OMEGA 22.5/MC 20.3 projection (+15.2pp over edge) with no weather suppression. Equal -8% injury hits both sides, no situational flags; fade juiced SEA -163 (needs 62% to breakeven, we project 49.6%).
SHARP MONEY
Moderate sharp edge 1.8% on away ML, strong 15% on home spread (conflicting); whales EXTREME volume $299K on away overrides
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves 1.5
+32.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+18.2 EV 50% 0u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Atlanta Braves 135
  • Bayesian posterior 50.3% ATL win vs market 38% (+12.3pp edge); MC 54.9% away win
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Atlanta Braves 1.5
  • MC sims show ATL covers +1.5 in 62% of 10K runs (margin -1.1, std 4.7) vs market-implied 38%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Bayesian over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC avg total 20.3, OMEGA 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Braves ML +6.6pp edge vs Kalshi (+15 EV) + extreme whales; MC under 22.5 70.4%
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