Home › Ligue 1 › Angers @ AJ Auxerre
Ligue 1
Angers
Angers
Angers
AJ Auxerre
Auxerre
AJ Auxerre
Full Game Analysis
Ligue 1
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
MONEYLINE
Angers Angers None
"Angers +450 ML +120 EV (40% model vs 18% implied) backed by $84k strong whales"
EV / $100
+120.0
Win Prob
40%
Edge
-10.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Angers 0.5
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$170770 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (96% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 201 trades Largest: $6200

Player Props Engine

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Angers

AJ Auxerre

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
1.1
Moneyline
AJ -117 / ANG 117
Win Probability
54% - 46%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

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Angers @ AJ Auxerre
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Angers @ AJ Auxerre

+120.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Angers 58% Lean
"Angers +450 ML +120 EV (40% model vs 18% implied) backed by $84k strong whales"
40% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 40%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -10.0%
Line Movement
Current AJ Auxerre -0.5 (-165) / Angers +0.5 (+115); ML AJ Auxerre -150 / Angers +450; Total 2.5 (-110 assumed)
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Neutral on home ML (EV 0); strong +EV on away ML due to 40% posterior vs raw implied 18.2%; vig asymmetry favors underdog.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior matches de-vigged market at 60% Auxerre win prob (EV-neutral on -150 ML), but +450 Angers ML yields +120 EV/100 due to raw implied 18% and vig asymmetry. $84k strong whale volume (93% confidence, 4 wallets) on Angers provides key Tier 2 signal in poor-data spot. Low team leader gpg (0.2-0.3) favors under 2.5 total; all conf reduced 7pts.
SHARP MONEY
STRONG volume tier whale signal ($84,718 from 4 profitable wallets, 93% confidence on Angers).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Angers None
+120.0 EV 58% 0.5u
SPREAD Angers 0.5
+4.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Angers 450
  • Posterior assigns 40% prob to Angers win vs book raw implied 18.2% (+21.8pp edge on high-vig dog odds)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Angers 0.5
  • Whale action + model neutrality projects 46% cover prob vs 46.5% breakeven at +115
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 2.5
  • Team leaders avg 0.2-0.3 gpg (Sinayoko 8/29, Peter 5/27); low-scoring Ligue profile
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Angers +450 ML +120 EV (40% model vs 18% implied) backed by $84k strong whales
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