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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers
New York Knicks
Knicks
New York Knicks
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +37.5% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 7.0
"76ers +7.0 (58.9% posterior edge +8.9pp) as market overprices Knicks -2.5pts too far amid OG injury"
EV / $100
+12.4
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+8.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Knicks None
50%
TOTAL over 118.2
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 15.6% divergence on total with strong signal.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$3244739 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 847 trades Kalshi: 1208 trades Largest: $101050
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-2.5
Edge: +4.5
Total
179.0
Edge: +60.8
Win Prob
62.3%
ML
-165 / 165

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia 76ers

New York Knicks

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -280 / 230 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -270 / 228 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 21.5 (175)
Market Consensus - - Over 215.0 (-108)
Market Consensus Best Line -7.0 (-108) - -
Value Line -7.0 (-115) ↓ - -
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 -252 / 252 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia 76ers

No injuries reported

New York Knicks

O
OG Anunoby
(F) out — Anunoby (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the 76ers, Jared Schwartz of the New York Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 21.5
Spread -7.0 (-108)
Key Injuries
OG Anunoby Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks

+12.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia 76ers 56% Lean
"76ers +7.0 (58.9% posterior edge +8.9pp) as market overprices Knicks -2.5pts too far amid OG injury"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.9%
Line Movement
Current Knicks -7.0 | O/U 118.2 | Knicks -275 / 76ers +229
Movement No significant line movement detected
Home injury impact: OG Anunoby out (-6.9% lambda adjustment favoring away)
+8.9pp edge on 76ers +7 cover per posterior; ML EV +2.5 too thin on heavy juice
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega -2.5 vs market -7 with Knicks -6.9% hit from OG Anunoby out creates 58.9% posterior cover prob for 76ers +7 (vs 50% implied), confirmed by sharp away edge (1.6%) and early CLV value (+4.5pts). Total 118.2 crushed by Omega 179/MC 99-92 (79% over at Omega line), but historical totals WR 48.7% caps it. Heavy -275 Knicks ML yields thin +2.5 EV, pass per juice rule.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 1.6% on spread away (moderate), 15.6% on total over (strong); overall favors away spread
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia 76ers 7.0
+12.4 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Knicks None
+2.5 EV 50% 0u
TOTAL over 118.2
+9.1 EV 52% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
New York Knicks -275
  • Posterior 75.2% vs 73.3% breakeven but heavy juice >-250 mandates pass
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Philadelphia 76ers 7.0
  • Posterior 58.9% 76ers cover +7 vs 50% implied, Omega -2.5 + 4.5pt edge over market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
OVER 118.2
  • Posterior 57.1% over vs 50% implied, sharp 15.6% edge + MC 79% over at 179
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Knicks -7 RLM sharp + extreme whale home volume (73.5% posterior), over 118.2 +15.6% sharp edge despite low total
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