Bundesliga
FC Cologne
Cologne
1
-
1
Final
St. Pauli
Pauli
Player Props Results
Final Box ScoreFC Cologne
St. Pauli
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
FC Cologne @ St. Pauli
+8.2 EV
per $100 wagered
St. Pauli
58%
Lean
Raw
"St. Pauli +180 ML value (42% our prob vs 35.7% implied, +14.8 EV) in home dog spot vs road-fading Cologne"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
42%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-8.0%
Line Movement
Current
FC Cologne -0.5 (-190) / St. Pauli +0.5 (+135); ML St. Pauli +180 / FC Cologne -145; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant movement detected
Strong value on home ML underdog (+180 pays 180 profit per 100 bet)
FULL ANALYSIS
Both relegation-threatened with abysmal records (St. Pauli 6-7-16, Cologne 7-9-13) and low outputs (top scorers 0.19-0.38 gpg). Market overprices Cologne road win at -145 (59% implied) but our 42% St. Pauli ML prob (home edge) yields +14.8 EV. Under 2.5 fits meager offenses, no pace boost.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
60%
St. Pauli 180
- Home underdog +EV at 42% our prob vs 35.7% implied, DDN 2-1 vs St
- Pauli
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
St. Pauli 0.5
- St
- Pauli +0.5 covers on win/draw (our 52% prob vs 42.6% breakeven) with home edge in low-scoring relegation spot
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Both offenses dismal (leaders 0.19-0.38 gpg), total 2.5 low for Bundesliga poor teams
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
FC Cologne +160 ML: 30 pts/El Mala 11G edge vs St. Pauli 25 pts (+9.8 EV, home offset)
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