Home › NBA › Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers
Boston Celtics
Celtics
Boston Celtics
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +84.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 8.5
"Philly +8.5: 1.6% sharp edge + Pinnacle 50.2% BOS cover fair vs market 51%, PM extreme Philly despite -290 juice"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
74%
Edge
+24.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
50%
TOTAL over 205.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 24.3% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: over Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$2774106 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 747 trades Kalshi: 1204 trades Largest: $74112

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Philadelphia 76ers

Boston Celtics

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -275 / 225 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -271 / 229 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 21.5 (275)
Market Consensus - - Over 206.0 (-104)
Market Consensus Best Line -8.0 (-102) - -
Value Line -7.5 (-113) ↓ - -
De-Vigged Fair Value 104 / -104 -253 / 253 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia 76ers

J
Joel Embiid
(C) day-to-day — Embiid (abdomen) is listed as probable for Saturday's Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first-round series against the Celtics.
Day-To-Day

Boston Celtics

No injuries reported
Game Preview
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 21.5
Spread -8.0 (-102)
Key Injuries
Joel Embiid Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia 76ers 60% Lean
"Philly +8.5: 1.6% sharp edge + Pinnacle 50.2% BOS cover fair vs market 51%, PM extreme Philly despite -290 juice"
74% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 74%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +24.4%
Line Movement
Current BOS -8.5 (-105/-115), O/U 205.5 (-110/-110), ML BOS -290 / PHI +235
Movement No significant movement
away_injury_impact
ML breakeven exactly matches posterior (0 EV); heavy fave rule triggers PASS on BOS ML
FULL ANALYSIS
Philly +8.5 offers value with 1.6% sharp edge and Pinnacle fair at 50.2% BOS cover (our 48% est); extreme Kalshi 99% PHI ignores juice. Embiid DTD nets +3.5% BOS but whales home contradict sharp/PM away conflag. Total over sharp 13.8% but totals weak historically.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 1.6% away spread (moderate), 0.1% away ML (weak); total over 13.8% strong but separate
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia 76ers 8.5
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Celtics None
+0.1 EV 50%
TOTAL over 205.5
+2.8 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Boston Celtics -290
  • -290 worse than -250 threshold (breakeven 74.4%, posterior matches exactly, no 5% edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia 76ers 8.5
  • Sharp 1.6% edge on away + Pinnacle fair 50.2% BOS cover (our est 52% PHI cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 205.5
  • Strong sharp edge 13.8% over + cross-market total over lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Philly +11.5 (9pt OMEGA edge) + +397 ML (+64 EV) as market overjuices Boston vs models at 65% Home win
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE