Home › MLB › Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
12 - 8
Final
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Chicago White Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -1.5
"Mariners ML +6.8pp Bayesian edge (Hancock > Burke), over 8 +15pp despite whale contra"
EV / $100
+4.6
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+9.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
60%
TOTAL over 8.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
33.4%
ML
200 / -200

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Seattle Mariners

Chicago White Sox

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 114 / -136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 119 / -129 -
Value Line - 114 / -141 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-360) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-142) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -135 / 135 124 / -124 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 60-day IL — Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Teddy McGraw
(SP) day-to-day — McGraw is working his way back from right elbow issues, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners are leaning toward activating Miller (oblique) from the 15-day injured list next week in Houston, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Wisdom
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
V
Victor Robles
(RF) 10-day IL — Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mariners placed Evans (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 60-day IL — Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Wilson
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Wilson on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured left thumb.
10-Day-IL
G
Gabe Speier
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Speier on the 15-day injured list Monday with left shoulder inflammation, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matt Brash
(RP) 15-day IL — Brash (lat) began playing catch Tuesday, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
15-Day-IL

Chicago White Sox

K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — Teel (hamstring) will run the bases this weekend before beginning a rehab assignment next week if all goes well, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Murray
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mason Adams
(RP) day-to-day — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Ky Bush
(SP) 60-day IL — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Feb. 10.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Hays
(LF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Hays on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to Saturday, due to a left calf strain.
10-Day-IL
E
Everson Pereira
(RF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Pereira on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to a right pectoral strain.
10-Day-IL
P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 60-day IL — The White Sox transferred Berroa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 60-day IL — Thorpe (elbow) has thrown seven bullpen sessions as part of his rehab process, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
12
-
Chicago White Sox
Sox
8
Seattle Mariners -1.5
60% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

+4.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 60% Lean
"Mariners ML +6.8pp Bayesian edge (Hancock > Burke), over 8 +15pp despite whale contra"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +9.8%
Line Movement
Current SEA ML -136 / CWS +113, Total 8.0
Movement No significant movement
+3.8 EV on Mariners ML after vig adjustment
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior gives Mariners 59.8% ML (6.8pp edge over market) with Hancock's 2.59 ERA edging Burke; sharp 19% spread divergence confirms away value despite whale home volume. Total over 8 hits 65% posterior amid MC 16.2 proj total, low ERAs bypassed by equal injuries and neutral weather. Omega even spread vs market SEA favoritism signals inefficiency, but cap conf at 60 post-calibration.
SHARP MONEY
19.1% sharp edge on spread favoring Mariners, weak ML signal but confirms away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+4.6 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
+3.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+12.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Seattle Mariners -136
  • Posterior 59.8% exceeds de-vigged market 53.1% by 6.8pp (Hancock 2.59 ERA edges Burke 2.72)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Seattle Mariners -1.5
  • Bayesian fusion shows model edge on away despite omega even spread, sharp 19.1% divergence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 8.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% (+15.2pp edge), MC projects 16.2 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
White Sox +200 ML (40.5% model vs 33% implied, +21.5 EV); $842k extreme whales + 80% MC under 22.5
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