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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
0 - 0
Final
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK LATE TO MARKET
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 2.2
"Rockies +2.2 (56% posterior +6pp) & Over 9.5 (+15pp, model 22.5 total) crushed by Coors altitude vs low market"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
42%
Edge
-7.8%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
42%
TOTAL over 9.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
35.4%
ML
183 / -183

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

New York Mets

Colorado Rockies

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 139 / -165 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 142 / -155 -
Value Line - 143 / -177 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-245) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-112) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (104)
De-Vigged Fair Value -106 / 106 149 / -149 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio suffered a fractured left thumb in Saturday's loss to the Angels and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — The Mets signed Rojas to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets reassigned Burdi to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — The Mets are expected to place Robert (back) on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) made the second appearance of his rehab assignment with High-A Spokane on Sunday, striking out two over a perfect inning.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) is slated to throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports.
15-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
New York Mets
Mets
0
-
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
0
Colorado Rockies 2.2
56% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 56% Lean
"Rockies +2.2 (56% posterior +6pp) & Over 9.5 (+15pp, model 22.5 total) crushed by Coors altitude vs low market"
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -7.8%
Line Movement
Current Rockies +2.2 / Mets -2.2 | O/U 9.5 | ML Rockies +143 / Mets -165
Movement No significant line movement detected
Coors Field altitude over bias (+35% runs, +1.8 expected)
Marginal +EV on Rockies ML from +1.0pp calibrated edge; stronger on spread cover and total over
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Rockies 56.3% cover prob on +2.2 vs market 50% despite sharp 18.4% away on spread, confirmed by extreme $660k whale volume on home (82 wallets). Total 9.5 criminally low vs Omega 22.5, MC 19.4 projected score, and Coors +35% over bias (posterior 65.2%). Equal injuries (-9%) and no pitchers limit edges; degraded data caps conviction.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 18.4% sharp edge on spread favoring Mets cover; weak 0.3% on ML away
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+2.5 EV 42%
TOTAL over 9.5
+20.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 42%
Colorado Rockies 143
  • Bayesian posterior 42.2% home win vs de-vigged market 41.1% (+1.0pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Colorado Rockies 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Rockies cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 9.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); Omega 22.5 & MC ~19.4 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies +122: +1.8pp Bayesian edge + EXTREME $273k whales (institutional), even Omega spread 0.0
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