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MLB
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.7% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 0.0
"Reds pick'em: 13% sharp spread edge + $2.6M extreme whale steam (89% home conviction) vs Tigers"
EV / $100
+5.0
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
62%
TOTAL under 9.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 12.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2591122 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (88% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 298 trades Kalshi: 127 trades Largest: $489828
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +110.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
36.0%
ML
177 / -177

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Tigers

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -112 / -108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -107 / -103 -
Value Line - -114 / -109 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (350) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (186) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 203 / -203 -102 / 102 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Tigers

J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager A.J. Hinch said Verlander's (hip) bullpen session Wednesday was "encouraging," Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach McKinstry
(3B) 10-day IL — McKinstry (hip) has resumed light baseball activities, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (groin) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
S
Scott Effross
(RP) day-to-day — Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tyler Owens
(SP) day-to-day — Owens (hip) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Saturday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Troy Watson
(SP) day-to-day — Watson is scheduled to begin a throwing program Monday as he works his way back from arthroscopic right elbow surgery, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) is scheduled to play catch out to 120 feet three times this week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dugan Darnell
(RP) day-to-day — The Tigers announced Sunday that Darnell (hip) has been playing catch five times a week and is also taking part in a running progression, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josue Briceno
(C) out — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Out
R
Reese Olson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Tigers placed Olson on the 60-day injured list Tuesday following a right shoulder labral repair Feb. 2 that will result in him missing the 2026 season.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — The Reds placed Suarez (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to April 24.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Trevino
(C) 10-day IL — Trevino (back) went 2-for-2 with two runs scored in a rehab game for High-A Dayton on Friday.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) threw 50 pitches over three innings in a simulated game Tuesday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) threw 16 pitches in a one-inning simulated game Monday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds placed Greene (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (350)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Justin Verlander 15-Day-IL
Bailey Horn 60-Day-IL
Eugenio Suarez 10-Day-IL
Jose Trevino 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Tigers @ Cincinnati Reds

+5.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 65% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"Reds pick'em: 13% sharp spread edge + $2.6M extreme whale steam (89% home conviction) vs Tigers"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current CIN -0.5 -110 / DET +0.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
Marginal +EV on Reds spread after +8pt boost from sharp (13%) + extreme whales
FULL ANALYSIS
Pick'em spread with 13% sharp edge + extreme $2.6M whale volume (89% home, institutional tier) from 100 profitable wallets overrides neutral Bayesian (-0.5%) and MC 50.2% home cover. Equal pitching injuries (home -11%, away -10.6%) but Reds EWMA 7.4 > 5.0; Pinnacle fair under 9 despite model 21.7 expected total (discrepancy reduces total conf). Degraded data caps conviction.
SHARP MONEY
Strong 13% sharp edge on home spread + moderate ML away but overall home; extreme $2.6M whale volume (100 profitable wallets, 89% home)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 0.0
+5.0 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
+2.1 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 9.0
+2.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Cincinnati Reds -110
  • Extreme whale consensus home (volume tier EXTREME) aligns with strong home recent form
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Cincinnati Reds 0.0
  • 13% sharp spread edge to home + extreme institutional whale steam ($2.6M, 89% conviction)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 9.0
  • Pinnacle de-vigged fair 51.5% under despite model total discrepancy
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Tigers -2.2: 18.3% sharp spread edge + extreme whales $251k vs even omega line (+4.3 EV)
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