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Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets
Nuggets
0 - 4
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Utah Jazz
Jazz
Utah Jazz
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK LATE TO MARKET
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Utah Jazz Utah Jazz 1.5
"Jazz -1.5 lean: 109.0 vs 97.0 form plus -1.3 altitude edge, +5.3 EV per $100 at 57% vs 54.1%."
EV / $100
+5.3
Win Prob
57%
Edge
+2.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Utah Jazz None
60%
TOTAL under 229.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$3800 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (82% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 5 trades Kalshi: 5 trades Largest: $938
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-25.0
Edge: -26.5
Total
190.5
Edge: -39.0
Win Prob
83.2%
ML
-496 / 496

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Denver Nuggets

Utah Jazz

Live Stats

OMEGA Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
-4.7
Moneyline
UTA 197 / DEN -197
Win Probability
34% - 66%

OMEGA model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

Injury Report

Denver Nuggets

S
Spencer Jones
(F) day-to-day — Jones (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's preseason game against the Jazz, Katy Winge of Altitude Sports reports.
Day-To-Day

Utah Jazz

L
Lauri Markkanen
(F) day-to-day — Markkanen won't play in Tuesday's preseason game against the Nuggets due to neck soreness.
Day-To-Day
B
Brice Sensabaugh
(F) day-to-day — Sensabaugh (hip) won't play in Tuesday's preseason game against the Nuggets.
Day-To-Day
J
Jusuf Nurkic
(C) day-to-day — Nurkic (foot) is listed as out for Tuesday's preseason game against Denver.
Day-To-Day
K
Kyle Filipowski
(F) day-to-day — Filipowski (back) is out for Tuesday's exhibition versus the Nuggets.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Green
(G) day-to-day — Green (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's preseason game against the Nuggets, Shreyas Laddha of The Salt Lake Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Live Box Score
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Denver Nuggets
Nuggets
0
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Utah Jazz
Jazz
4

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Utah Jazz (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T02:00:40.779323 UTC

Model 79.1% home win prob equals -378 fair value, no price edge

Total: under 190.5 (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-05T02:00:40.811677 UTC

OMEGA total and decomposed 193.2 both project a very low combined score

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz

+5.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Utah Jazz 62% Lean
"Jazz -1.5 lean: 109.0 vs 97.0 form plus -1.3 altitude edge, +5.3 EV per $100 at 57% vs 54.1%."
57% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 57%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +2.9%
Line Movement
Current Utah Jazz -1.5, Total 229.5, ML Home -108 / Away -112
Movement No opening line supplied; current Draft Kings: spread 1.5, total 229.5
ALTITUDE_FACTOR: Salt Lake City visiting teams average -1.3 pts/game
57% win at -118 pays $84.75 per $100 risked: 0.57*84.75-0.43*100=+5.3 per $100; edge above 2pp vig threshold but thin with N<20 sample
FULL ANALYSIS
Books call it a coin-flip: Jazz -1.5 (-118) and -108 ML at Delta Center with 229.5 total. OMEGA projects a Jazz blowout 107.8-82.9 and 83.2% win prob, but that is built on 1-0 vs 0-1 plus 109.0 vs 97.0 momentum, so treat the 26.5-pt spread gap and 39-pt total gap as overfit. Lean Jazz and under on altitude (-1.3) and form, kept at LEAN with all picks 65 or below.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Utah Jazz 1.5
+5.3 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Utah Jazz None
+4.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 229.5
+2.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Utah Jazz -108
  • Home ML -108 needs 51.9% breakeven; 57% estimate clears by 5.1pp with rest/form and altitude support
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Utah Jazz 1.5
  • Home recent form 109.0 vs away 97.0 plus -1.3 altitude drag supports Jazz -1.5 at Delta Center
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 229.5
  • OMEGA total and decomposed 193.2 both sit ~36-39 points under 229.5 with 109.0 vs 97.0 recent form
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega projects Utah by 24.9 with 79.1% win prob, but no market price so display-only lean
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