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Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees New York Yankees None
"Reds +1.5 and under 8.5 have value: both teams lose key bats, injuries drag scoring down, and heavy -285 Yankees juice favors a closer game than the ML implies."
EV / $100
+2.5
Win Prob
76%
Edge
+1.5%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
58%
TOTAL under 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$613495 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 184 trades Kalshi: 71 trades Largest: $50520

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Cincinnati Reds

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -250 / 205 ↑ -
Sharp Action -2.5 (130) - -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Pierce Johnson
(RP) 15-day IL — Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) 10-day IL — De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and he will begin a rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is slated to begin a rehab assignment Thursday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

New York Yankees

J
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
(2B) day-to-day — Chisholm (groin) exited Thursday's contest against the White Sox in the fourth inning, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Wells
(C) 10-day IL — Wells (head) has been sent to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin a rehab assignment.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) has been "feeling great" during recent mound sessions and could start throwing to hitters by the end of June, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
E
Eric Reyzelman
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (130)
Key Injuries
Ke'Bryan Hayes 10-Day-IL
Emilio Pagan 15-Day-IL
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Day-To-Day
Trent Grisham 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

+2.5 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 55% Lean
"Reds +1.5 and under 8.5 have value: both teams lose key bats, injuries drag scoring down, and heavy -285 Yankees juice favors a closer game than the ML implies."
76% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 76%
Book Implied 74%
Edge +1.5%
Line Movement
Current Yankees -1.5 / Total 8.5 / ML -285
Movement No significant movement detected
Reds missing star SS Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL) — critical bat and base runner removed Yankees missing Giancarlo Stanton and Austin Wells, but the lineup still carries Bellinger and Rice Injury impact net -1.9% favoring Reds — home team more banged-up on paper
Modest edge on Yankees ML. Whale capital ($613K, heavy on home side) confirms this direction, but the -285 price demands a near-perfect confidence. calibrated edge is only +1.5pp, and missing data limits conviction.
FULL ANALYSIS
Yankees at home, -285 ML, but the real value is on the spread and under. Reds miss Elly De La Cruz's bat (10-day IL) and key relievers; Yankees have lost Stanton and Wells. Whales have dumped $613K on the home side (83% conviction), but the heavy -285 juice means we're better off taking +1.5 with the Reds or the under 8.5. Data quality is poor, so all picks stay in the 55-60 range — lean, not lock.
SHARP MONEY
Whale volume ($613K, 83% on HOME) is extreme, and prediction markets align at 71.5% home win. No direct sharp-vs-public data to confirm or reject, but the consensus is toward the Yankees.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+2.5 EV 55% 0.5u
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
+4.0 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
New York Yankees -285
  • Yankees at home with a healthier core (Reds lose De La Cruz's 0.280 bat and 20 SB threat) — Bayesian edge is thin but positive
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
  • Reds have +1.9% injury advantage (net), and the Yankees' -285 ML implies they cover the -1.5 spread less than 70% of the time — taking +1.5 provides a cushion against a close game
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 8.5
  • Yankees' missing Stanton and Wells reduce home run power
  • Reds missing De La Cruz removes a top offensive threat
  • Combined injury subtraction points to a sub-9 run game
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds +1.5 at -110: Monte Carlo projects +1.0 margin, giving 55% cover probability and +5.5 EV — take the points in a tight game missing star power.
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