Serie A
Bologna
Bologna
Napoli
Napoli
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGABologna
Napoli
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
1.5
Moneyline
NAP -123
/
BOL 123
Win Probability
55%
-
45%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Bologna @ Napoli
+-1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Napoli
60%
Lean
"Napoli ML -185 fair value (64.9% posterior = breakeven) with profitable ML calibration in Lean tier, 0 EV"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
65%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+14.9%
Line Movement
Current
Napoli -0.5 (-195/+135), ML Napoli -185/+450 Bologna, Total 2.5
Movement
No significant line movement detected
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior fuses at 64.9% Napoli win matching market prior for zero edge; Napoli's 21-7-7 record supports home lean despite heavy juice. Poor data (29% signals) caps conviction at Lean tier where ML hits 61.5%. Totals avoided beyond minimal due to 48.7% historical WR.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
62%
Napoli -185
- Posterior 64.9% exactly at -185 breakeven (64.9%); ML leans profitable in 55-67% tiers historically
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Napoli -0.5
- 64.9% posterior for home cover (-0.5 equivalent to ML win prob) but -195 juice requires 66.1% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 2.5
- Serie A averages ~2.6 goals/game; totals historically losing (48.7% WR, reduce 5pts)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Napoli ML -185 fair value (64.9% posterior = breakeven) with profitable ML calibration in Lean tier, 0 EV
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