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Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
76ers
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia 76ers Philadelphia 76ers 8.5
"PHI +8.5 (sharp 1.2% edge) + Over 236.5 (+44% EV Bovada), SA ML overjuiced vs model"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+3.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia 76ers None
58%
TOTAL over 236.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Philadelphia 76ers

San Antonio Spurs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - -339 / 279 ↑ -
Market Consensus -8.5 (-105) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 237.0 (-107)
Fair Value Fair Value 101 / -101 -315 / 315 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia 76ers

C
Cameron Payne
(PG) out — Payne was diagnosed with a strained right hamstring Sunday and will be re-evaluated in "approximately two weeks," Austin Krell of OnPattison.com reports.
Out
J
Johni Broome
(F) out — Broome (knee) has been ruled out for Friday's game against the Timberwolves.
Out

San Antonio Spurs

E
Emanuel Miller
(F) day-to-day — Miller signed a two-way contract with the Spurs on Monday, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Day-To-Day
D
David Jones Garcia
(F) out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Out
Game Preview
Philadelphia 76ers @ San Antonio Spurs
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -8.5 (-105)
Total Over 237.0
Key Injuries
Cameron Payne Out
Johni Broome Out
Emanuel Miller Day-To-Day
David Jones Garcia Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia 76ers @ San Antonio Spurs

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia 76ers 60% Lean
"PHI +8.5 (sharp 1.2% edge) + Over 236.5 (+44% EV Bovada), SA ML overjuiced vs model"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.5%
Line Movement
Current SA -8.5 (-110) / PHI +8.5 (-110), Total 236.5, ML SA -355 / PHI +280
Movement No movement data
+EV on PHI spread (+2.8%) and massive +44% EV on over at Bovada per Pinnacle fair value; SA ML breakeven 78% exceeds our 68% model prob (PASS)
Model: 48.5% win rate | n=379 — NBA 48.5% overall (N=379), profitable ML leans but losing totals/player props in leans
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money divergence shows 1.2% edge on PHI +8.5 (Pinnacle near pick'em) and massive 17.2% over total edge with +44% EV at Bovada +190. SA -355 ML too juiced vs our 68% prob (breakeven 78%), Philly stays competitive despite injuries. Data quality poor (42%) caps confidence but sharp signals converge on value.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on away spread (1.2%) and ML (0.6%), strong 17.2% divergence on over vs retail
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia 76ers 8.5
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia 76ers None
+3.2 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 236.5
+44.3 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
San Antonio Spurs -153
  • 60.5% win prob exactly matches -153 breakeven; minimal but positive EV
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
San Antonio Spurs -3.0
  • OMEGA model projects Spurs 103-100 (+3pt edge matching spread exactly)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 203.0
  • OMEGA projects 203 total exactly on line; totals historically losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Spurs -3 (103-100 model) with 60.5% win prob matching -153 breakeven; Embiid DTD but home ELO +5.5 confirms
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