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MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +56.2% EV
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.0
"Guardians ML +149 model edge +3.1% Bayesian vs 40% implied, MC under 70% on 24 total"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
60%
TOTAL under 24.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.4% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$530170 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 311 trades Kalshi: 73 trades Largest: $17966
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
24.0
Win Prob
40.2%
ML
149 / -149

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Cleveland Guardians

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -119 / -101 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -111 / 102 -
Value Line - -117 / -107 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (375) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (190) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value 204 / -204 -106 / 106 O/U -101 / 101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

T
Taylor Trammell
(LF) out — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit", Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Out
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Pena (hamstring) did some running Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cody Bolton
(RP) 15-day IL — Bolton (back) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) threw a bullpen session Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) faced live hitters for the second time in an extended spring training game Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Brown (shoulder) isn't expected to return from the 15-day injured list until late May or early June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. "Hopefully it could be a little sooner."
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw 20 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday and said afterward that it was akin to his first live BP of spring training, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Sugar Land on Saturday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (375)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Taylor Trammell Out
Joey Loperfido 10-Day-IL
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Andrew Walters 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Cleveland Guardians

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 58% Lean Calibrated
"Guardians ML +149 model edge +3.1% Bayesian vs 40% implied, MC under 70% on 24 total"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Spread 0.0 | Total 24.0 | ML Guardians +149 / Astros -149
Movement No movement data
Marginal EV on home ML at model odds; totals show under value
Model: 51.5% win rate | n=579 — MLB 51.5% N=579; lean tier profitable on spreads/ML
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior 57.1% Guardians win edges model 40.2% by 3.1%; MC under 70.3% on 24.0 total strongest signal. Extreme whales on Astros contradict but volume-weighted reduce conf only 2 pts. Equal injuries -7.5% both sides, no pitchers limit edges; data degraded -4 pt adjustment.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($287k) on Astros at 73% confidence from 25 profitable wallets
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 0.0
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Guardians None
+3.4 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 24.0
+4.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Cleveland Guardians 149
  • Bayesian edge +3.1% home (57.1%) exceeds model-implied 40.2% breakeven by 12%
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Cleveland Guardians 0.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 57.1% home win vs model 40.2% implies +3.1% edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC 10k sims under 70.3% vs 24.0 total line
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +149 ML +11.5 EV at 51% model prob vs 40% breakeven, whales fade but Bayesian/MC home lean
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