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MLB
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Kansas City Royals
Royals
Kansas City Royals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.6% EV
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 0.0
"Model over 65% vs 50% implied at 9.0 total (+12.1 EV), Royals injuries -7.8% drag"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
54%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.6% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$268572 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 149 trades Kalshi: 3 trades Largest: $21552
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +122.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
39.1%
ML
156 / -156

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Kansas City Royals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -126 / 106 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -121 / 110 -
Value Line - -127 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (320) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (167) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 181 / -181 -116 / 116 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
Gabriel Arias
(SS) 10-day IL — no
10-Day-IL
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) day-to-day — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shawn Armstrong
(RP) 15-day IL — Armstrong struck out one over a scoreless inning to pick up a hold in Friday's 4-1 win over the Cubs.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — Walters (lat) struck out the side in the eighth inning Friday for Triple-A Columbus.
15-Day-IL

Kansas City Royals

B
Bailey Falter
(RP) 15-day IL — Falter (elbow) allowed no hits or walks with two strikeouts across 1.1 scoreless innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
S
Stephen Kolek
(SP) 15-day IL — Kolek (oblique) allowed three runs (one earned) on eight hits and no walks across 4.1 innings with Triple-A Omaha on Wednesday. He struck out four.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Estevez
(RP) 15-day IL — Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said Wednesday in an interview on 96.5 The Fan that Estevez's velocity during a live batting practice session Tuesday was closer to where it needs to be. He's recovering from a left foot contusion.
15-Day-IL
J
Jonathan India
(2B) 10-day IL — The Royals announced Tuesday that India underwent season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder.
10-Day-IL
J
James McArthur
(RP) 60-day IL — McArthur (elbow) is expected to resume a throwing program Monday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyson Guerrero
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Simonelli
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Vaz
(2B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Alec Marsh
(SP) 60-day IL — The Royals placed Marsh (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (320)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Gabriel Arias 10-Day-IL
Carlos Hernandez Day-To-Day
Bailey Falter 15-Day-IL
Stephen Kolek 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Guardians 55% Lean
"Model over 65% vs 50% implied at 9.0 total (+12.1 EV), Royals injuries -7.8% drag"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.7%
Line Movement
Current Royals ML -122 / Guardians +102, Total 9.0
Movement No significant movement
Royals injuries -7.8% impact > Guardians -6.4%
Slight edge to away ML but vig crushes EV; total over shows +15.2pp edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian posterior over 65.2% at 9.0 total crushes market with Omega 22.5 projection and MC 20.1 avg score. ML razor thin -1.2pp home edge faded by injuries and MC away 49% win. Sharp spread home but +EV away cover per Pinnacle fair 64.4%.
SHARP MONEY
13.6% sharp edge on spread home + moderate ML away divergence, but overall home lean
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Guardians 0.0
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Kansas City Royals None
-2.3 EV 54%
TOTAL over 9.0
+12.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Kansas City Royals -122
  • Bayesian posterior 53.7% home vs 54.9% implied, whales extreme on home
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Cleveland Guardians 0.0
  • MC sim away covers 49% at even spread vs market shading home
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Posterior over 65.2% vs 50% market, MC projected 20.1 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Guardians +5.4pp Bayesian/MC edge at pick'em (52.2% cover), under 22.5 66.5% vs omega total
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