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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
4 - 5
Final
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
53% Lean
53% Lean
SPREAD
Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs -1.5
"Total over 9.5 at Wrigley: Bayesian edge +15.2pp, two bad ERAs, wind out to left — projector says 10+ runs. Take it before the books adjust."
EV / $100
+1.9
Win Prob
60%
Edge
-8.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
60%
TOTAL over 9.5
63%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
37.9%
ML
164 / -164

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Colorado Rockies

Chicago Cubs

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -199 / 164 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -189 / 169 -
Value Line - -200 / 160 -
De-Vigged Fair Value - -180 / 180 -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) worked in the batting cage Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck (hamstring) stretched and did running drills prior to Tuesday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Friday that Dollander will likely undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (0-1) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over three-plus innings against San Francisco. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day

Chicago Cubs

M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyd (knee/shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment Saturday, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Edward Cabrera
(SP) day-to-day — Manager Craig Counsell said Wednesday that Cabrera's right hand is feeling better, and he's expected to be on a normal schedule leading up to his next start, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Palencia
(RP) 15-day IL — Palencia (2-1) worked around a walk to toss a scoreless inning of relief and earn the win in Monday's 5-4 victory over the Rockies. He struck out three.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — Steele will throw plyo balls for the next week and then progress to throwing a baseball, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — The Cubs announced Wednesday that Wiggins (elbow) has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters at the organization's complex in Arizona and could soon be ready to pitch in games, MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jameson Taillon
(SP) 15-day IL — Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Riley Martin
(RP) 15-day IL — Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Miller (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Austin (knee) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
4
-
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
5
Chicago Cubs -1.5
53% conf
L

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

+1.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Chicago Cubs 53% Lean
"Total over 9.5 at Wrigley: Bayesian edge +15.2pp, two bad ERAs, wind out to left — projector says 10+ runs. Take it before the books adjust."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 69%
Edge -8.7%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home -224 / Away +183; Spread: -1.5; Total: 9.5
Current ML: Home -224 / Away +183; Spread: -1.5; Total: 9.5
Movement No significant movement detected. Line steady since open.
Altitude hangover: Rockies coming from Denver (5280ft) to sea-level Chicago — historically a 2-game adjustment period for pitchers. Pitcher mismatch: Imanaga (4.44 ERA) vs Lorenzen (7.54 ERA) — sharp money sees home value on spread despite the wide ERA gap. Wrigley wind 10 mph out to left-center — supports the over in a moderate way (+8% HR probability).
Negative EV on home moneyline at -224. Our probability (60.4%) falls short of the 69.1% breakeven. Fading the Cubs on the moneyline (+183) yields +EV: away implied 30.9%, our probability 39.6%, EV = (0.396*183 - 0.604*100) = +12.1 per $100.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is lighting up the Cubs spread (-1.5) with a 15.1% divergence and confirmed RLM — Pinnacle sees Chicago covering easily despite the wide ERA gap between Imanaga and Lorenzen. But the total market is the real opportunity: Bayesian posterior gives the over 65.2% vs market 50% at 9.5, a +15.2pp edge that dwarfs everything else on the board. Two shaky ERAs (4.44 and 7.54) in Wrigley with a 10mph wind out to left — this total is begging to go over. Whales are split (58% away, $4.1M volume) but the total signal is clean with no competing sharp action. Rockies ML at +183 is a contrarian value play with +12.1 EV per $100 — model says 39.6% win probability vs market 30.9%. The Cubs moneyline at -224 is a trap with -12.6 EV despite the home favorite tag.
SHARP MONEY
Reverse line movement detected on spread (15.1% sharp edge) with strong signal. Pinnacle sharp books shading Cubs spread while public money leans Rockies. Prediction markets +9.7% above books on Cubs win — institutional money aligns with sharp books, not the public. Whale signals ($4.1M volume) show 58% toward away side — contradicting sharp money. Default to sharp money (Pinnacle) as more efficient.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Chicago Cubs -1.5
+1.9 EV 53% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+12.1 EV 60% 0.8u
TOTAL over 9.5
+6.3 EV 63% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Colorado Rockies 183
  • Bayesian edge +8.8pp favoring away side on ML
  • Market overprices Cubs at 69.1% when model posterior is 60.4% — providing +12.1 EV per $100 on the Rockies at +183
SPREAD PICK
○ 53%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
  • Sharp money divergence + RLM on Cubs spread (15.1% sharp edge) despite negative Bayesian edge on ML — spread market is mispriced relative to moneyline
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 63%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian posterior for over @ 9.5 is 65.2% vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge
  • Two bad ERAs (Imanaga 4.44, Lorenzen 7.54) in Wrigley with 10 mph wind out to left-center favor scoring
  • Omega model projects 22.5 total (buggy), but market 9.5 is beatable
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies +1.5 (55% confidence, +2.9 EV) and Over 9.5 (63% confidence, +24.5 EV) — whales and model agree on value away from market.
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