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NBA
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
Pistons
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +77.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
"CLE -3.5 (+3.1 EV) on DET -10% injury adj + $2.46M whale home steam; over 212.5 sharp RLM edge"
EV / $100
+3.1
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers None
59%
TOTAL over 212.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 24.3% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$2461181 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 773 trades Kalshi: 1060 trades Largest: $39058

Player Props Engine

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Detroit Pistons

Cleveland Cavaliers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -165 / 140 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -163 / 143 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 22.5 (245)
Market Consensus - - Over 213.0 (-114)
Market Consensus Best Line -3.5 (-109) - -
Value Line -3.5 (-112) ↓ - -
De-Vigged Fair Value -103 / 103 -154 / 154 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Detroit Pistons

K
Kevin Huerter
(G) out — Huerter (adductor) is listed as questionable for Monday's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Cavaliers.
Out
C
Caris LeVert
(G) day-to-day — LeVert is questionable for Monday's Game 4 against the Cavaliers due to a right heel contusion.
Day-To-Day

Cleveland Cavaliers

No injuries reported
Game Preview
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 22.5
Spread -3.5 (-109)
Key Injuries
Kevin Huerter Out
Caris LeVert Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers

+3.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Cavaliers 60% Lean
"CLE -3.5 (+3.1 EV) on DET -10% injury adj + $2.46M whale home steam; over 212.5 sharp RLM edge"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.0%
Line Movement
Current CLE -3.5 / O/U 212.5 / CLE -162
Movement No significant movement
Away injury disadvantage (Huerter OUT, LeVert DTD: -10.3% DET efficiency)
Marginal edge erased by vig on ML; focus spread/total for value
FULL ANALYSIS
DET injuries (Huerter OUT, LeVert DTD) create -10.3% efficiency hit, boosting CLE cover prob to 55% vs implied 52%. Extreme whale volume ($2.46M home) + sharp RLM over total (23.6% edge) signal value despite 0% Bayesian edge. Degraded data caps conf; ML juiced at -162 kills EV.
SHARP MONEY
Whales extreme volume on home ($2.46M, institutional); sharp weak away on ML/spread but strong RLM over total
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
+3.1 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers None
-0.1 EV 59%
TOTAL over 212.5
+2.9 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Cleveland Cavaliers -162
  • Breakeven 61.8% met exactly by posterior but no 5% buffer required by ML filter
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
  • Injuries hobble DET (-10.3% lambda adj) + whale extreme home consensus vs weak sharp away signal
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 212.5
  • Sharp 23.6% edge + RLM on over; +75% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (50.8%)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cavs -3.5: +10.3% injury lambda edge vs DET + $2.3M extreme whales = 63% cover prob
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