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MLB
New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV
54% Lean
54% Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees New York Yankees None
"Yankees -1.5 +150 with 20.2% sharp spread edge and $198K whale AWAY flow, but ML -131 has 0.0pp Bayesian edge"
EV / $100
-8.1
Win Prob
52%
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
63%
TOTAL over 6.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 20.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$198019 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 79 trades Kalshi: 46 trades Largest: $20300

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 106 / -126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 110 / -121 -
Value Line - 108 / -129 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-500) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-171) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value -161 / 161 116 / -116 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — Judge (calf) isn't on the Yankees' roster for their American League Division Series against the Rays, Jack Curry of YES Network reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Schmidt (biceps) will be shut down for the rest of the season, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
F
Fernando Cruz
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Cruz (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kervin Castro
(RP) 60-day IL — The Yankees transferred Castro (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

S
Shane McClanahan
(SP) out — Manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that McClanahan (forearm) will not be included on the Rays' ALDS roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Out
G
Griffin Jax
(SP) day-to-day — Jax was removed from Saturday's start against the Phillies due to a lower-back contusion, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jacob Melton
(LF) 60-day IL — The Rays recalled Melton from Triple-A Durham and placed him on the 60-day injured list Tuesday due to a right hamstring strain.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) has resumed full baseball activity, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-500)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
Aaron Judge 10-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 15-Day-IL
Shane McClanahan Out
Griffin Jax Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: New York Yankees -1.5 (+150) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T00:58:29.158881 UTC

Market Consensus de-vigged away cover 38.3% vs +150 breakeven 40%; sharp spread edge 20.2% strong plus EXTREME whale away flow points to Yankees -1.5 value

Moneyline: New York Yankees (-131) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T00:58:29.148273 UTC

calibrated 52.1% equals market with sharp + whale lean to Yankees but no price edge at -131

Total: over 6.5 (-104) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T10:44:05.519553 UTC

Market Consensus fair over 50.5% vs 51.0% breakeven at -104 is essentially coin-flip; lean over on neutral market with no weather edge

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-04T10:44:05.557503 UTC

Simpson leads the Rays with a .306 average. Against a Yankees team missing key pitchers, he has a solid chance to get at least one hit. Confidence capped at 60 due to unvalidated roster.

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

+-8.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 54% Lean
"Yankees -1.5 +150 with 20.2% sharp spread edge and $198K whale AWAY flow, but ML -131 has 0.0pp Bayesian edge"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 52%
Edge 0.0%
Line Movement
Current Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-156) / New York Yankees -1.5 (+150), Total 6.5, ML NYY -131 / TB 109
Movement No significant line movement detected
No calibrated edge on moneyline (posterior 52.1% vs market 52.1%). At -131, breakeven is 56.7%; 52.1% posterior is negative EV of about -$8.1 per $100.
FULL ANALYSIS
Books and Bayesian fusion agree Yankees win 52.1% at -131, leaving no ML price edge with -$8.1 EV per $100. Sharp spread divergence 20.2% strong to away plus $198K EXTREME whale AWAY 91% is the only converging signal, supporting Yankees -1.5 at +150. With no pitchers, no models, and 57% degraded data, this is a sharp-lean runline only.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money favors away: spread sharp edge 20.2% strong signal, moneyline edge 0.7% weak. Pinnacle fair away ML 53.6% vs retail. Kalshi consensus 52.5% away, -0.1% divergence. Whale AWAY 91% on $198,019 EXTREME volume confirms away lean.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
-8.1 EV 54%
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+5.0 EV 63% 1u
TOTAL over 6.5
+1.5 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
New York Yankees -131
  • calibrated 52.1% equals market with sharp + whale lean to Yankees but no price edge at -131
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Market Consensus de-vigged away cover 38.3% vs +150 breakeven 40%; sharp spread edge 20.2% strong plus EXTREME whale away flow points to Yankees -1.5 value
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 6.5
  • Market Consensus fair over 50.5% vs 51.0% breakeven at -104 is essentially coin-flip; lean over on neutral market with no weather edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Yankees +2.2 vs Rays: injury-depleted Rays face sharp away money, Bayesian model shows 60.5% cover probability with +17 EV.
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