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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
0 - 12
Final
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 1.5
"Mets @ Reds total set at 9.0 on a 70°F night at GABP — model sees 65% over probability with +15.2pp edge behind two shaky pens and a rookie regression candidate (Burns). Over 9 is the sharpest number on the board."
EV / $100
+49.2
Win Prob
55%
Edge
-2.9%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
62%
TOTAL over 9.0
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
27.0%
ML
270 / -270

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 106 / -126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 109 / -121 -
Value Line - 106 / -132 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-245) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-145) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (-104)
De-Vigged Fair Value -137 / 137 115 / -115 O/U 103 / -103
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

T
Tyrone Taylor
(CF) 10-day IL — Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports.
10-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Scott
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Nunez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Sunday.
60-Day-IL
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Pierce Johnson
(RP) 15-day IL — Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) 10-day IL — De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and he will begin a rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is slated to begin a rehab assignment Thursday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Box Score
FINAL
New York Mets
Mets
0
-
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
12
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
65% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds

+49.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 65% Sharp Lean
"Mets @ Reds total set at 9.0 on a 70°F night at GABP — model sees 65% over probability with +15.2pp edge behind two shaky pens and a rookie regression candidate (Burns). Over 9 is the sharpest number on the board."
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 58%
Edge -2.9%
Line Movement
Open ML: Home -137 / Away 114; Total: 9.0; Spread: -1.5
Current ML: Home -137 / Away 114; Total: 9.0; Spread: -1.5
Movement No significant movement detected. Market appears stable.
Reds missing Elly De La Cruz (10-Day-IL) — top offensive producer (.280/.850 OPS), huge lineup hole Reds also without Ke'Bryan Hayes (10-Day-IL) and Pierce Johnson (bullpen piece) — compounding roster depth loss Mets get Juan Soto (.293, 15 HR) and Bo Bichette (40 RBI) — offense intact and clicking Chase Burns (2.14 ERA, 7-1) vs Tobias Myers (4.05 ERA, 0-1) — pitching mismatch favours Reds but Burns is a rookie and may not sustain sub-3 ERA; Myers has been unlucky and can outperform projection Great American Ball Park — hitter-friendly venue (10th in park factor runs), supports over Cincinnati weather: Sunny 74F, light 5 mph wind — neutral conditions, no weather impact
The moneyline side has negative expected value — market odds imply 57.8% for the Reds, while the calibrated gives the home side only 45.1% (Mets 54.9%). Betting the Reds ML would be -EV. The spread and total offer genuine positive EV.
FULL ANALYSIS
The DraftKings board has a massive hole: total 9.0 in Great American Ball Park with two struggling bullpens and a rookie ace whose 2.14 ERA hides a 3.90 xFIP. Bayesian fusion gives OVER a 65.2% probability — a +15.2pp edge that dwarfs normal noise. The spreads (+295 on home +1.5, +114 on Mets ML) both offer positive EV but the total is the real alpha: Monte Carlo projects 18 combined runs, the model floors at 9.3 per side. Burns will likely be good but not 7-inning-of-2-hit-good; Myers is perfectly hittable and the Mets lineup (Soto, Bichette) will force Cincinnati's thin pen into high-leverage innings. Elly De La Cruz is out but Sal Stewart (13 HR) still threatens. At 68 confidence and 13.3 EV per $100, the over is the play to size up on.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 13.9% favoring home side — strong divergence signal. Sharp ML edge is only 1.2% favoring away. Whale signals from Polymarket show $1M+ in volume with 87% confidence on HOME side. The spread divergence (13.9%) is the strongest signal in this game. Sharp books (Pinnacle) also have home fair value at 56%. This is a classic situation where sharp money is buying the home side on the spread, not the juice-heavy moneyline.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds 1.5
+49.2 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+7.2 EV 62% 1.0u
TOTAL over 9.0
+13.3 EV 68% 2.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
New York Mets 114
  • Bayesian posterior gives Mets 54.9% win probability vs market's 42.2% — a +12.7pp edge
  • The market is overrating Burns' 2.14 ERA (unsustainable BABIP/strand rate) and underrating the Mets' lineup depth (Soto, Bichette) against a thin Reds bullpen
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Cincinnati Reds 1.5
  • +49.2% EV on DraftKings spread relative to Pinnacle fair value of 37.8% — the market is mispricing the home side run-line given Reds' home field, quality starter (Burns), and weakened Mets bullpen health
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior gives OVER 65.2% vs market 50.0% — a +15.2pp edge
  • Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, both bullpens are thin (Reds missing Johnson, Mets missing Senga/Alzolay), and the OMEGA-scoring projection (9.2-8.8 = 18 runs) suggests the market total is grossly mispriced
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets +114 delivers +26.5% EV as sharp model sees road favorite mispriced; total 8.0 is comically low — hammer over with +15.2pp edge
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