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NFL
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers
9 - 24
Final
Los Angeles Rams
Rams
Los Angeles Rams
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK LATE TO MARKET
50% Lean
50% Lean
MONEYLINE
Los Angeles Rams Los Angeles Rams None
EV / $100
-31.0
Win Prob
60%
Edge
-14.0%
SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -6.5
60%
TOTAL under 46.5
55%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-13.0
Edge: -6.5
Total
43.0
Edge: -3.5
Win Prob
93.9%
ML
-1532 / 1532

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Rams

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -310 / 255 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -294 / 254 -
Sharp Action Best Line -6.5 (-110) - -
Market Consensus -6.5 (-107) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 45.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 46.0 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 -278 / 278 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Los Angeles Chargers

D
Daiyan Henley
(LB) active — Henley (shoulder) has returned to Sunday's matchup versus the Rams, David Droegemeier of Locked On Chargers reports.
Active
R
Rodney Shelley
(CB) out — Shelley (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Rams.
Out
D
Donte Jackson
(CB) out — Jackson (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Rams.
Out
O
Oronde Gadsden
(TE) active — Gadsden is active for Sunday's Week 8 matchup against the Rams.
Active
T
Theo Wease Jr.
(WR) out — inactive
Out
B
Brenen Thompson
(WR) out — inactive
Out
D
Deane Leonard
(CB) out — inactive
Out
K
Kayode Awosika
(G) out — inactive
Out
D
Derwin James Jr.
(S) Injured Reserve — The Chargers placed James (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.
Injured Reserve
K
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
(WR) active — Lambert-Smith is likely to drop down the wideout pecking order Sunday versus the Rams, as Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports that both Ladd McConkey (concussion) and Tre' Harris (hamstring) are set to return to action.
Active
Q
Quentin Johnston
(WR) active — Johnston's role in the passing game will shrink slightly in Week 8 against the Rams given that both Ladd McConkey (concussion) and Tre' Harris (hamstring) have been cleared to play, Eric Smith of the Chargers' official site reports.
Active
L
Ladd McConkey
(WR) active — McConkey (concussion) is off the injury report and will play in Sunday's game against the Rams, Noah Furtado of The Athletic reports.
Active
T
Tre' Harris
(WR) active — Harris (hamstring) doesn't have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Rams.
Active
B
Bud Dupree
(LB) active — Dupree (neck) is off the Chargers' injury report ahead of the team's matchup versus the Rams on Sunday.
Active
D
Denzel Perryman
(LB) Injured Reserve — Head coach Jim Harbaugh said Wednesday that Perryman (undisclosed) is "close" to returning from injured reserve, Alex Insdorf of BoltBeat.com reports.
Injured Reserve
J
Joe Alt
(OT) active — Alt (neck) was not listed on the Chargers' official injury report Wednesday.
Active
C
Cameron Dicker
(PK) active — Dicker made both of his field-goal attempts in the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
C
Charlie Kolar
(TE) active — Kolar caught three of six targets for 20 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
K
Kimani Vidal
(RB) active — Vidal turned seven carries into 21 yards and caught three of four passes for 19 yards during the Chargers' 22-6 loss to the Chiefs on Sunday.
Active
K
Keaton Mitchell
(RB) active — Mitchell turned two carries into four yards, failed to haul in his lone target and returned four kickoffs for 87 yards during Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Active
J
Justin Herbert
(QB) active — Herbert completed 22 of 37 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and one interception in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs. He also rushed five times for 26 yards.
Active
O
Omarion Hampton
(RB) active — Hampton rushed seven times for 18 yards and caught all four of his targets for 21 yards in Sunday's 22-6 loss to the Chiefs.
Active
J
Jamaree Caldwell
(DT) active
Active
D
Dalvin Tomlinson
(DT) active
Active
K
Kendall Williamson
(S) active
Active

Los Angeles Rams

T
Trent McDuffie
(CB) questionable — McDuffie (back) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports.
Questionable
J
Jaylen Watson
(CB) questionable — Watson (shoulder) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
Questionable
J
Joe Cardona
(LS) out — Cardona (ankle) is inactive against the Chargers on Sunday.
Out
T
Ty Simpson
(QB) out — Simpson (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Chargers but will serve as the team's emergency quarterback if needed.
Out
C
Colby Parkinson
(TE) out — Parkinson (ribs) is inactive for Sunday's Week 8 matchup against the Chargers.
Out
J
Jordan Whittington
(WR) active
Active
C
Coleman Shelton
(C) active
Active
K
Keagen Trost
(OT) out — inactive
Out
B
Bill Murray
(G) out — inactive
Out
D
Desjuan Johnson
(DE) out — inactive
Out
M
Myles Garrett
(DE) Injured Reserve — The Rams are optimistic that Garrett (knee) will be able to return to practice in Week 9, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Injured Reserve
J
Joshua Karty
(PK) active — The Rams elevated Karty from the practice squad to the active roster Saturday.
Active
N
Nate Landman
(LB) active — Landman (concussion) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Chargers, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Active
T
Terrance Ferguson
(TE) Injured Reserve — Ferguson (ankle) won't return to practice this week, Greg Beacham of the Associated Press reports.
Injured Reserve
D
Davante Adams
(WR) Injured Reserve — Head coach Sean McVay said Wednesday that Adams had successful surgery on his left hamstring, and the Rams are hopeful that the wide receiver will be able to return on the early side of his 6-to-10-week recovery timetable, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports.
Injured Reserve
K
Kam Curl
(S) active — Curl logged four tackles (two solo) during the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Active
Q
Quentin Lake
(S) active — Lake finished Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders with seven tackles (four solo).
Active
T
Tutu Atwell
(WR) active — Atwell wasn't targeted in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders.
Active
K
Konata Mumpfield
(WR) active — Mumpfield caught one of two targets for 15 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win at Las Vegas.
Active
T
Tyler Higbee
(TE) active — Higbee caught two of three targets for 14 yards during Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders.
Active
M
Max Klare
(TE) active
Active
M
Matthew Stafford
(QB) active — Stafford completed 23 of 29 passes for 195 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and rushed three times for minus-3 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Active
B
Blake Corum
(RB) active — Corum rushed 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and brought in his only target for eight yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday.
Active
D
Davis Allen
(TE) active — Allen caught four of five targets for 20 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's 35-21 win over the Raiders.
Active
K
Kyren Williams
(RB) active — Williams rushed 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 22 yards in the Rams' 35-21 win over the Raiders on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers
9
-
Los Angeles Rams
Rams
24
Los Angeles Rams None
50% conf
W

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Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams

+-31.0 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Rams 50% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Model says Rams -13 but market says -6.5 — we split the difference: Rams -6.5 @ -115 and under 46.5 @ -113, the -285 ML.
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 74%
Edge -14.0%
Line Movement
Current Rams -6.5, Total 46.5 (Draft Kings); ML Home -285 / Away +230
At -285 the Rams ML breakeven is 74.0% — the model's 93.9% win probability is not trustworthy at this sample size (7 games), so we haircut to ~60% and see strongly negative ML EV. The -6.5 spread at -115 (implied 53.5%) is the least-bad entry point, with model-implied EV near zero; the under at -113 vs OMEGA total of 43.0 carries modest value.
FULL ANALYSIS
The quantitative stack screams Rams — OMEGA's line is -13.0 vs the market's -6.5 with a 93.9% home win probability, and Chargers form (13.8 EWMA) is nearly half the Rams' (25.4) — but a gap this large against a -285 market usually means the model is missing something. We discount the model gap fully and take the thin residual: Rams -6.5 at -115 (60, LEAN) and the under 46.5 at -113 (55, LEAN) versus an OMEGA total of 43. The Rams ML at -285 is a hard pass — 74% breakeven needs confidence we won't fake on a 7-game sample.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Los Angeles Rams None
-31.0 EV 50%
SPREAD Los Angeles Rams -6.5
+1.0 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 46.5
+2.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Los Angeles Rams -285
  • No edge: -285 requires 74% breakeven and the model's 93.9% win probability is untrustworthy on a 7-game sample — this is a mandatory-schema listing, not a recommendation
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Los Angeles Rams -6.5
  • OMEGA independent line is -13.0 vs the market's -6.5, but with a 6.5-point unexplained gap we discount fully and take only the modest residual edge on the Rams -6.5 against an 0-6 team showing 13.8 EWMA recent form vs the Rams' 25.4
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 46.5
  • OMEGA total is 43.0 (decomposed ratings 44.1) vs the market's 46.5 — a 3.5 to 2.4-point shortfall implying the market total is shaded high on two sides combining for roughly 41.9 points of modeled expectation
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Chargers +6.5 at -108 at a 6.5-point model-market gap is the cleanest play, with under 45.5 a paper edge and the -265 Rams ML a textbook pass at 72.6% breakeven.
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