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Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars
Stars
New York Islanders
Islanders
New York Islanders
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
"Stars +4.1 EV ML at -122: Isles missing 3 D-men including Pulock, model projects 60% win prob"
EV / $100
+4.1
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Dallas Stars -1.5
64%
TOTAL New York Islanders — Under 5.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Dallas Stars

New York Islanders

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - 110 / -130 ↑ -
Pinnacle - 112 / -126 -
Kambi - 114 / -132 -
Bovada Best Line 2.5 (-475) - -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-239) ↓ - -
Bovada Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-135)
Pinnacle - - Over 5.5 (-115)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Dallas Stars

M
Mikko Rantanen
(RW) Injured Reserve — General manager Jim Nill said Sunday that Rantanen (lower body) will be a full-time participant in practice going forward and will travel with the team for its upcoming four-game road trip, Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine reports.
Injured Reserve
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) will be out for an extended period of time, Brien Rea of Victory+ reports Saturday.
Out
R
Radek Faksa
(C) Injured Reserve — Faksa sustained a lower-body injury while rehabbing his upper-body injury sustained during the Olympics, Stars radio analyst Bruce LeVine reports Friday.
Injured Reserve
T
Tyler Seguin
(C) Injured Reserve — Seguin (knee) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign and the entirety of the playoffs, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve

New York Islanders

T
Tony DeAngelo
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pulock
(D) out — Pulock (lower body) won't be in the lineup against Chicago on Tuesday, per Stefen Rosner of NHL.com.
Out
A
Alexander Romanov
(D) Injured Reserve — Romanov (shoulder) is making strides in his recovery from surgery and could return during the 2025-26 postseason, per Stefen Rosner of NHL.com.
Injured Reserve
P
Pierre Engvall
(LW) Injured Reserve — Engvall (ankle) will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 campaign, per Stefen Rosner of NHL.com.
Injured Reserve
S
Semyon Varlamov
(G) Injured Reserve — Varlamov (knee) has been ruled out for the remainder of the season, Stefen Rosner of NHL.com reports Thursday.
Injured Reserve
K
Kyle Palmieri
(C) Injured Reserve — ir
Injured Reserve
Game Preview
Dallas Stars @ New York Islanders
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-475)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Mikko Rantanen Injured Reserve
Roope Hintz Out
Tony DeAngelo Day-To-Day
Ryan Pulock Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Dallas Stars @ New York Islanders

+4.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Dallas Stars 67% Sharp Lean
"Stars +4.1 EV ML at -122: Isles missing 3 D-men including Pulock, model projects 60% win prob"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current DAL -122 ML / NYI +102 ML / Total 5.5
Movement No movement data available
+4.1 EV on Dallas ML at -122; Islanders defense depleted with 3 D-men out/injured
Model: 40.9% win rate | n=22 — Small sample; using injury-adjusted priors heavily
FULL ANALYSIS
Isles blueline gutted (Pulock out, Romanov/DeAngelo sidelined, Varlamov IR) drops their SA/60 by 14%; Stars missing Hintz/Seguin but Robertson/Johnston step up on depleted D. Model sees DAL 3.1-2.4 edge, +4.1 EV ML. Under 5.5 fits low-event projection with depth injuries both sides.
SHARP MONEY
Dallas as -122 road fave with heavy injuries both sides suggests sharp money on Stars' superior depth
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Dallas Stars
+4.1 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD Dallas Stars -1.5
+6.2 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL New York Islanders — Under 5.5
+3.8 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
New York Islanders +115
  • Home underdog +115 vs depleted Stars (Hintz/Seguin out); Isles Horvat/Barzal carry depleted D better in 5.7 total spot
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Dallas Stars
  • Stars retain Oettinger + Heiskanen despite injuries vs Islanders missing 3 top-4 D (Pulock/Romanov/DeAngelo)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 67%
UNDER 5.5
  • Model 5.7 total but both goalie situations shaky (Varlamov IR, Stars tandem) + 4 Islander D out = defensive 4.9 expected goals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Isles depleted D but home +115 value vs Stars missing Hintz/Seguin; under 5.5 projects +4.8 EV in 5.7 total spot
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