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Full Game Analysis
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Ω DDN SI PICK
57% Lean
57% Lean
MONEYLINE
Sevilla Sevilla None
EV / $100
+1.9
Win Prob
42%
Edge
+2.5%
SPREAD Sevilla -0.5
58%
TOTAL over 2.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Sevilla

Getafe

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
Sevilla
Sevilla
1
-
Getafe
Getafe
3
Sevilla None
57% conf
L

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: Sevilla (+135) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T02:07:08.483600 UTC

Sevilla's 5-2-3 away record vs Getafe's 2-3-5 overall makes the +135 away side marginally underpriced against a 42.6% implied probability.

Total: over 2.5 (+155) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T03:38:01.216834 UTC

The market has juiced the under to -195 (66.1% implied), but Getafe's 2-3-5 home profile and Sevilla's leaky 12-loss-equivalent goals-against trend make 3+ goals closer to a 42% event — the over at +155 is the only side not overpriced.

Spread: Sevilla -0.5 (+120) LOSS · Recorded 2026-11-01T02:07:08.758532 UTC

Same-side play as the ML at a better price: +120 on Sevilla -0.5 means a win-only outcome pays more than the ML juice costs, with model cover probability ~44-45% vs 45.5% implied.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Sevilla @ Getafe

+1.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Sevilla 57% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Sevilla ML +135 with a 5-2-3 road profile vs a Getafe side at 2-3-5, but thin EV keeps every play at — read only.
42% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 42%
Book Implied 40%
Edge +2.5%
Line Movement
Open Sevilla -0.5 / Total 2.5 (estimated open)
Current Getafe +0.5 (-170) / Sevilla -0.5 (+120); ML Getafe +250 / Sevilla +135; Total 2.5 (over +155 / under -195)
Movement Under juiced to -195 while over drifts to +155 — market shading toward a low-scoring match
Sevilla ML at +135 implies 42.6%; our 42.5% posterior is a dead push — thin EV below the $2 actionable threshold. Spread +120 on Sevilla -0.5 carries the cleaner marginal edge at ~44-45% model win vs 45.5% implied, effectively breakeven too. Treat all three markets as near-efficient; display-only card.
FULL ANALYSIS
Getafe at 2-3-5 is somehow the -170 spread favorite while Sevilla sits 5-2-3 on the road — thebooks are pricing Getafe's Coliseum low-block and nothing else. Sevilla +135 ML and -0.5 +120 are the only sides our posterior puts at or above implied; the juiced under -195 (66.1% breakeven) is the market's trap side given Getafe's home scoring rate. All three plays are display-only LEANs with PASS sizing — no EV clears $2.10 and nothing here has a validated edge cell.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Sevilla None
+1.9 EV 57%
SPREAD Sevilla -0.5
+2.1 EV 58%
TOTAL over 2.5
+1.6 EV 58%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 57%
Sevilla 135
  • Sevilla's 5-2-3 away record vs Getafe's 2-3-5 overall makes the +135 away side marginally underpriced against a 42.6% implied probability
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Sevilla -0.5
  • Same-side play as the ML at a better price: +120 on Sevilla -0.5 means a win-only outcome pays more than the ML juice costs, with model cover probability ~44-45% vs 45.5% implied
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 2.5
  • The market has juiced the under to -195 (66.1% implied), but Getafe's 2-3-5 home profile and Sevilla's leaky 12-loss-equivalent goals-against trend make 3+ goals closer to a 42% event — the over at +155 is the only side not overpriced
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Sevilla ML at +150 vs the market making them -0.5 favorites — 40% implied, ~43.5% true, +8.8 EV in a fixture the books are pricing by feel, not data
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