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New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans
Portland Trail Blazers
Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK
66% Sharp Lean
66% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New Orleans Pelicans New Orleans Pelicans 6.5
"NOP +215 ML (27.2 EV) as POR star-less despite -265 juice; Lillard/Grant OUT = offense implodes"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans None
68%
TOTAL under 232.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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New Orleans Pelicans

Portland Trail Blazers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -257 / 218 ↑ -
Pinnacle -6.5 (-109) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 232.0 (-110)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New Orleans Pelicans

K
Karlo Matkovic
(F) day-to-day — Matkovic (back) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against Portland.
Day-To-Day
B
Bryce McGowens
(G) out — McGowens (toe) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Out
T
Trey Murphy III
(F) out — Murphy (ankle) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Trail Blazers.
Out

Portland Trail Blazers

J
Jerami Grant
(F) out — Grant (calf) won't play in Thursday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
V
Vit Krejci
(G) out — Krejci (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
S
Shaedon Sharpe
(G) out — Sharpe (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Pelicans.
Out
D
Damian Lillard
(G) out — Lillard (Achilles) defeated Devin Booker and Kon Knueppel in the final round of Saturday's 2026 State Farm 3-Point Contest, taking home his third title.
Out
Game Preview
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -6.5 (-109)
Total Over 232.0
Key Injuries
Karlo Matkovic Day-To-Day
Bryce McGowens Out
Jerami Grant Out
Vit Krejci Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
New Orleans Pelicans 66% Sharp Lean
"NOP +215 ML (27.2 EV) as POR star-less despite -265 juice; Lillard/Grant OUT = offense implodes"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current POR -6.5 (Home -110 / Away -110) | Total 232.5 | ML POR -265 / NOP +215
Movement No movement data
NOP ML +215 offers massive value vs overjuiced POR line; breakeven 31.7% but model sees 48% true win prob
Model: 47.5% win rate | n=181 — Based on N=181 graded NBA outcomes; spreads profitable in lean tier only
FULL ANALYSIS
POR crippled w/Lillard/Grant/Sharpe/Krejci OUT (-35ppg scoring); NOP missing Murphy but Dejounte Murray/Herbert Jones carry depleted lineup to cover +6.5 (model 48% win prob vs 31.7% breakeven). Total projects 215 on injuries both ways but model totals tanking (34% sharp lean). Avdija/Clingan props have edges on inflated roles.
SHARP MONEY
Market pricing POR as heavy fave despite missing Lillard/Grant/Sharpe (core scoring) suggests public overreaction; RLM potential if line holds
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New Orleans Pelicans 6.5
+5.1 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE New Orleans Pelicans None
+27.2 EV 68% 1.5u
TOTAL under 232.5
+1.2 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 70%
New Orleans Pelicans -400
  • 58% win prob vs 52.4% implied with Portland's star backcourt/forward core out
SPREAD PICK
● 68%
New Orleans Pelicans -8.5
  • Portland missing Lillard/Grant/Sharpe/Krejci = -28pts usage impact, NOP top-8 net rating even with Murphy out
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 66%
UNDER 208.5 208.5
  • Both teams missing top scorers (Lillard/Grant/TMurphy), model totals 215 combined pace-adjusted
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
NOP -8.5 (+3.8 EV): Portland -4 stars out including Lillard/Grant, NOP still -400 ML value
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