MLS
FC Cincinnati
Cincinnati
Chicago Fire FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$19789 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong away consensus (95% of whale volume).
Whales: away
Polymarket: 13 trades
Largest: $5286
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
43.6%
ML
129 / -129
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAFC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire FC
Model Lines
MODELSpread
2.2
Moneyline
CHI -138
/
FC 138
Win Probability
58%
-
42%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
FC Cincinnati @ Chicago Fire FC
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
FC Cincinnati
58%
Lean
"Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 3.5 (+13.7pp over edge); CIN +290 ML 44% model prob w/ whale backing"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
44%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-5.8%
Line Movement
Current
CHI -0.5 (-145)/CIN +0.5 (+105); Total 3.5 (-110); ML CHI -140/CIN +290
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Massive EV on Cincinnati ML due to model prob 44.2% vs market-implied 25.6%; devigged edge +2.5pp amplifies payout
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects even 3.8-3.8 goals (total 7.6) vs market 3.5, Bayesian over 3.5 edge +13.7pp with MC under 7.5 just 34.7%. Cincinnati ML undervalued at +290 (44.2% posterior vs 25.6% implied), confirmed by moderate whales ($19.8k, 96% conf) and omega even ML. Spread edge to CIN +0.5 off 0.5pt omega discrepancy despite home 5-2-2 record.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume $19.8k from 5 profitable wallets at 96% confidence on Cincinnati
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
FC Cincinnati 290
- Bayesian posterior 44.2% away win vs devigged market 41.7% (+2.5pp edge); MC 42.7% away win
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
FC Cincinnati 0.5
- Omega spread even (0.0) vs market CHI -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to CIN +0.5; MC sims away cover +0.0 at 42.7%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
59%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp edge); Omega total 7.5 vs market 3.5 (4pt edge)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Omega 7.5 total vs mkt 3.5 (+13.7pp over edge); CIN +290 ML 44% model prob w/ whale backing
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