Home › Bundesliga › Hamburg SV @ Borussia Dortmund
Bundesliga
Hamburg SV
Hamburg SV
SV
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
TOSS-UP
66 TOSS-UP
SPREAD
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund -1.5
"Dortmund 17-7-2 vs Hamburg 7-9-10 away = +4.1 EV ML despite -255 juice, 4.2% prob edge"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
76%
Edge
+26.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Borussia Dortmund
68%
TOTAL Over 2.5 2.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Hamburg SV

Borussia Dortmund

AI Pick

LEAN
65
LEAN
Spread
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Expected Value
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Ω LOW 66% "Dortmund 17-7-2 vs Hamburg 7-9-10 away = +4.1 EV ML despite -255 juice, 4.2% pro"

Dortmund's superior Bundesliga quality vs 2. Bundesliga Hamburg projects 2.1 goals expected edge

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Hamburg SV @ Borussia Dortmund

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Borussia Dortmund -1.5 66% TOSS-UP
"Dortmund 17-7-2 vs Hamburg 7-9-10 away = +4.1 EV ML despite -255 juice, 4.2% prob edge"
76% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 76%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +26.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line provided
Current DOR -1.5 (105/-145) | ML -255/550 | O/U 2.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Dortmund ML despite vig due to 4.2% prob edge
FULL ANALYSIS
Dortmund's 17-7-2 record towers over Hamburg's 7-9-10 away struggles, projecting 76% home win prob vs 71.8% implied. Guirassy (12G/25) exploits Hamburg defense while Ryerson (12A/23) feeds transitions. Low total but Bundesliga 3.1 gpg avg gives slight over edge at 2.5.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Borussia Dortmund -1.5 -1.5
+3.2 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE Borussia Dortmund
+4.1 EV 68% 1u
TOTAL Over 2.5 2.5
+2.3 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Borussia Dortmund -260
  • Market inefficiency undervalues Dortmund home dominance vs lower-tier Hamburg
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Borussia Dortmund
  • Dortmund's superior Bundesliga quality vs 2
  • Bundesliga Hamburg projects 2.1 goals expected edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 62%
OVER 3.5 3.5
  • Bundesliga pace + Dortmund attack (Guirassy/Ryerson production) projects 3.8 total goals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Dortmund home vs 2. Liga Hamburg shows 2.1 goal edge but -260 juice kills ML EV (-3.1 per $100)
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