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NHL
Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames
Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche 0.0
"Even matchup but model 11-7 vs COL + 2-0 H2H wins = Avalanche ML lean despite Makar out"
EV / $100
+1.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
60%
TOTAL under 19.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Total
19.0
Win Prob
36.3%
ML
175 / -175

Player Props Engine

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Calgary Flames

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action - -320 / 260 ↑ -
Sharp Action -2.5 (140) - -
Sharp Action - - Over 3.5 (-155)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Calgary Flames

K
Kevin Bahl
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Hanley
(D) out — out
Out
S
Samuel Honzek
(LW) Injured Reserve — Honzek (upper body) will not return this season, per Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet 960 The Fan on Friday.
Injured Reserve
J
Jonathan Huberdeau
(LW) Injured Reserve — Huberdeau (hip) was put on injured reserve Saturday, per the NHL media site.
Injured Reserve
C
Cullen Potter
(LW) out — out
Out

Colorado Avalanche

N
Nazem Kadri
(C) out — out
Out
C
Cale Makar
(D) out — Makar (upper body) will likely miss a few more games, Corey Masisak of The Denver Post reports Tuesday.
Out
Game Preview
Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (140)
Total Over 3.5
Key Injuries
Kevin Bahl Day-To-Day
Joel Hanley Out
Nazem Kadri Out
Cale Makar Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Calgary Flames @ Colorado Avalanche

+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 58% Lean
"Even matchup but model 11-7 vs COL + 2-0 H2H wins = Avalanche ML lean despite Makar out"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.3%
Line Movement
Current omega_model: Colorado -175 ML / PK spread / 19.0 total
Movement No market movement (model-generated lines)
Altitude advantage Colorado Key injuries both sides: Makar OUT (COL), Huberdeau IR (CGY)
No positive EV side at model prices; Flames +175 offers best value but still negative
Model: 47.7% win rate | n=298 — NHL 142-156 (47.7%); reduce all conf by 5; favor ML (profitable tiers)
FULL ANALYSIS
Dead even MC sims 45.7% each side at PK, but model 11-7 vs COL + 2-0 perfect H2H picks on Avalanche last meeting. Makar out kills COL D but Flames missing Huberdeau IR + 3 others; altitude still home edge. No market = low conf everywhere, slight lean COL ML at -175 (breakeven 63.6% vs our 60%).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche 0.0
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
+1.8 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 19.0
+0.5 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
Colorado Avalanche -175
  • Model 11-7 vs COL + perfect 2-0 recent H2H picks on COL ML/spread
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Colorado Avalanche 0.0
  • Recent 2-0 model vs H2H (both COL wins) + home altitude despite Makar out
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 19.0
  • MC under 45.5% at 19.0 + NHL variance + injuries reduce scoring both sides
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Even matchup but model 11-7 vs COL + 2-0 H2H wins = Avalanche ML lean despite Makar out
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