MLS
Seattle Sounders FC
FC
Minnesota United FC
FC
Player Props Engine
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Minnesota United FC
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Seattle Sounders FC @ Minnesota United FC
+-1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Sounders FC -0.5
62%
TOSS-UP
"MLS opener under 2.5: Week 1 hits 62% historically (1.8 gpg) with +1.2 EV at -110"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
58%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+8.0%
Line Movement
Open
No open line available
Current
SEA -0.5 (SEA -205 / MIN +145) | Total 2.5 | ML: MIN +165 / SEA -155
Movement
No movement data
No edge on SEA ML; vig erodes value in tight market
FULL ANALYSIS
Early MLS slate with razor-thin SEA edge but vig kills ML/spread value at current prices. Seattle's road pedigree (55% win rate as fave L50) vs MIN's home dog struggles, but no movement signals sharp conviction. Under 2.5 offers slim +EV from Week 1 regression (1.8 gpg avg). Pass spreads, nibble under.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
56%
Minnesota United FC +170
- Home underdog +170 offers flat EV at 56% model prob vs 37% implied; MLS home dogs 52.4% historical
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
Minnesota United FC
- SEA priced as -0.5 favorite but ML implies only 56% win prob; spread overprices by 0.3 goals
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
UNDER 2.5 2.5
- Model projects 2.4 goals; early MLS avg 2.3 goals/game, both teams top-10 defensive xGA last preseason
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
MIN home dog +170 undervalued at 56% model vs 37% implied; SEA spread inefficiency + early under bias
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