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Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV LATE TO MARKET
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.0
"Bucs -3.0 at home vs Packers: OMEGA line says -7.0, market says -3.0 — that's a 4-point gap worth +18.7% EV. Rain supports under 38.5. Buy the half point on 3."
EV / $100
+18.7
Win Prob
71%
Edge
+18.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
65%
TOTAL under 38.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 12.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$197012 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 68 trades Kalshi: 255 trades Largest: $27430
Weather Impact
Tampa: Patchy light rain | 80°F | Wind 9 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Patchy light rain): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
-7.0
Edge: -10.0
Total
50.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
70.6%
ML
-240 / 240
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at 3.0 — 14.8% of NFL games land on 3. Buying the half point is worth ~7.4% win probability. Pay up to -125 for the buy. OMEGA line (-7.0) disagrees by 4.0 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

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Green Bay Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 145 / -170 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 143 / -163 -
Sharp Action Best Line 10.5 (-360) - -
Market Consensus 3.0 (-108) ↓ - -
Value Line 3.0 (-106) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 39.5 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 154 / -154 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Green Bay Packers

W
Warren Brinson
(DT) Injured Reserve — Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday.
Injured Reserve
E
Edgerrin Cooper
(LB) active — Cooper (shoulder) has cleared the league's concussion protocol and has been removed from the Packers' injury report ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers.
Active
J
Jager Burton
(C) questionable — Burton (groin) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Questionable
J
Jacob Monk
(C) out — Monk (quadriceps) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Out
A
Aaron Banks
(G) out — Banks (toe/knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Out
A
Anthony Campbell
(DT) out — Campbell (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Out
L
Lukas Van Ness
(DE) active — Van Ness (shoulder) does not have an injury designation for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Active
K
Karl Brooks
(DT) active
Active
K
Kevin Zeitler
(G) active — The Packers signed Zeitler to a one-year contract Wednesday, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports.
Active
S
Skyy Moore
(WR) active — Coach Matt LaFleur said Wednesday that Moore will be the next man up at wide receiver after it was announced Jayden Reed (neck) will undergo season-ending surgery, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports.
Active
J
Jayden Reed
(WR) Injured Reserve — The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Injured Reserve
Z
Zach Bako-Bewele
(OT) Injured Reserve — The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Injured Reserve
M
Micah Parsons
(DE) out — Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said Monday that Parsons (knee) hasn't experienced any setbacks but won't be cleared to practice this week, Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com reports.
Out
E
Evan Williams
(S) active — Williams recorded 10 tackles (four solo) during Thursday's 35-14 loss to Atlanta.
Active
X
Xavier McKinney
(S) active — McKinney recorded five tackles (four solo) and one interception during the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday.
Active
Z
Zaire Franklin
(LB) active — Franklin tallied 10 tackles (three solo) during the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday.
Active
J
Jonnu Smith
(TE) active — Smith caught two passes on three targets for 16 yards during Thursday's 35-14 loss to Atlanta.
Active
J
J. Michael Sturdivant
(WR) active — Sturdivant tallied three catches on as many targets for 22 yards during the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday.
Active
B
Bo Melton
(WR) active — Melton logged 21 of 66 offensive snaps during Thursday's 35-14 loss to the Falcons but did not catch his only target. He also recorded two tackles and turned two kickoff returns into 46 yards.
Active
C
Chris Brooks
(RB) active — Brooks caught his only target for four yards and added a tackle on special teams during the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday.
Active
K
Kaleb Johnson
(RB) active — Johnson tallied four carries for six yards and gathered in one of three targets for 10 yards during Thursday's 35-14 loss to the Falcons.
Active
L
Laken Tomlinson
(G) active — The Packers signed Tomlinson off the Cowboys' practice squad Saturday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Active
M
MarShawn Lloyd
(RB) active — Lloyd rushed four times for 11 yards and brought in two of three targets for seven yards in the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday.
Active
T
Tucker Kraft
(TE) active — Kraft secured four of eight targets for 26 yards in the Packers' 35-14 loss to the Falcons on Thursday. He also recovered a fumble.
Active
T
Trey Smack
(PK) active — Smack went 0-for-1 on field-goal tries and 2-for-2 on extra-point attempts in Thursday's 35-14 loss to the Falcons.
Active

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

J
Jacob Parrish
(CB) questionable — questionable
Questionable
E
Easton Stick
(QB) active — The Buccaneers elevated Stick from their practice squad to their active roster Saturday ahead of Sunday's matchup against Green Bay, Scott Smith of the team's official site reports.
Active
S
SirVocea Dennis
(LB) questionable — Dennis (calf/personal) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Packers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Questionable
K
Keionte Scott
(CB) active
Active
Y
Yaya Diaby
(LB) active
Active
B
Bucky Irving
(RB) active — Irving (glute) was a full participant in Friday's practice and doesn't carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Packers, Brianna Dix of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
B
Benjamin Morrison
(CB) out — Morrison (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Out
K
Ko Kieft
(TE) out — Kieft (elbow) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Out
R
Rueben Bain Jr.
(LB) out — Bain (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Out
J
Josiah Trotter
(LB) active — Trotter (shoulder) was a full participant at the Buccaneers' practice Thursday.
Active
C
Chris Godwin Jr.
(WR) active — Godwin (ankle) was a full practice participant Thursday, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.
Active
R
Rakeem Nunez-Roches
(DT) questionable — questionable
Questionable
J
Jalen McMillan
(WR) Injured Reserve — The Buccaneers placed McMillan (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.
Injured Reserve
S
Sean Tucker
(RB) active — Tucker didn't touch the ball in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings.
Active
I
Ifeatu Melifonwu
(S) active — The Buccaneers signed Melifonwu from the practice squad to the active roster Tuesday, Greg Auman of Fox Sports reports.
Active
C
Cade Otton
(TE) active — Otton tallied three catches (on six targets) for 56 yards Sunday in a loss to the Vikings.
Active
K
Kenny Gainwell
(RB) active — Gainwell turned three carries into minus-4 yards and added two catches (on five targets) for 14 yards in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings. He also returned six kickoffs for 160 yards and added a tackle.
Active
A
Ayden Garnes
(CB) active
Active
L
Luke Haggard
(G) active
Active
B
Billy Schrauth
(G) active
Active
J
Jalon Daniels
(QB) active — Head coach Todd Bowles said Monday that Daniels will step in as the Buccaneers' new starting quarterback while Baker Mayfield is out for a "minimum of three weeks" due to a dislocated right thumb, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports.
Active
B
Baker Mayfield
(QB) out — Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said Monday that Mayfield (thumb) is expected to miss three weeks, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
Out
T
Ted Hurst III
(WR) active — Hurst caught one of three targets for a 40-yard touchdown during Sunday's 23-16 loss to Minnesota.
Active
C
Chase McLaughlin
(PK) active — McLaughlin connected on all three field-goal tries, including a 54-yarder, and his only extra-point attempt in Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings.
Active
E
Emeka Egbuka
(WR) active — Egbuka recorded five catches (on nine targets) for 62 yards during Sunday's 23-16 loss to the Vikings.
Active
Game Preview
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
until kickoff
Current Line
Spread 10.5 (-360)
Total Over 39.5
Key Injuries
Warren Brinson Injured Reserve
Edgerrin Cooper Active
Jacob Parrish Questionable
Easton Stick Active
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

+18.7 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 65% Sharp Lean
"Bucs -3.0 at home vs Packers: OMEGA line says -7.0, market says -3.0 — that's a 4-point gap worth +18.7% EV. Rain supports under 38.5. Buy the half point on 3."
71% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 71%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +18.7%
Line Movement
Current TB -3.0
PRECIPITATION (Patchy light rain): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL) Contrarian spot: 0-3 home favorite getting 3 points vs market expectation of -7 Key number 3.0 — 14.8% of NFL games land on 3
Massive edge. The market is pricing Tampa as a coin-flip home team. OMEGA's scoring model+team strength model sees a dominant home favorite. The 0-3 record is noise — the underlying metrics (EWMA form, decomposed ratings) still favor Tampa. This is a buy-low spot on a talented team.
FULL ANALYSIS
The market is massively overcorrecting for Tampa's 0-3 start. OMEGA's Poisson+ELO model sees a -7.0 favorite, but the books are offering Tampa at -3.0. That's a 4-point gap — one of the largest I've seen. The rain (+18% under) supports the under, but the real edge is on the Bucs spread and moneyline. This is a classic buy-low spot on a talented team that's been unlucky. The line should move toward -7 as sharp money flows in. Take the +140 now before it's gone.
SHARP MONEY
The massive gap between market spread (TB -3.0) and OMEGA line (TB -7.0) suggests sharp money has not yet fully moved this line. The market is still pricing in public perception of Tampa's record. As sharp money flows in, this line should move toward -7. The current price is a gift.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.0
+18.7 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Buccaneers None
+18.7 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL under 38.5
+2.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 140
  • OMEGA win prob 70.6% vs market implied 51.9% = +18.7% edge; 0-3 team being undervalued
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3.0
  • OMEGA line (-7.0) vs market (-3.0) = 4-point gap; market overcorrecting for 0-3 record
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
UNDER 38.5
  • Rain (+18% under) + OMEGA total (50.5) vs market (38.5) = 12-point gap; market expects a shootout, model sees a defensive grind
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
OMEGA model has GB -7.0 vs market TB -3.5 — 10.5-point edge on Packers +3.5 at -112, 11.8% EV
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